210
FXUS64 KFWD 141733
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

A dominant upper ridge will keep hot and rain-free weather in
place through the period. High temperatures will climb into the
mid to upper 90s today with just a handful of locations reaching
the triple digit mark. Dew points will sufficiently mix out this
afternoon, keeping heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria
between 100-105 degrees or less. Another warm and humid night is
on tap tonight with overnight lows generally falling into the mid
to upper 70s. The urban Metroplex will likely remain around 80
degrees.

Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow as the upper
level ridge continues to shift a bit further east. High
temperatures in the triple digits will become increasingly
prevalent across the region, with heat index values between
100-107 degrees for most locations. We`ll be assessing the need
for a Heat Advisory on Monday for portions of the area.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/
/Tuesday and Beyond/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a
strong mid-level ridge centered over New Mexico through Wednesday.
Expect the hottest temperatures of the week Tuesday and Wednesday
with afternoon highs exceeding the century mark across much of
North Texas. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in several
locations Tuesday afternoon becoming more widespread Wednesday
afternoon with an increase in boundary-level moisture.

A shortwave trough will dig south across the Plains late Wednesday
into Thursday sending an associated cold front into North Texas by
Wednesday evening. This frontal boundary along with a series of
vorticity maxima rounding about the base of the mid-level
trough will provide support for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday
night through the end of the work week. A gradual north to south
progression of thunderstorm activity is expected as the boundary
slowly pushes south and mixes out over Central Texas late Thursday
into early Friday. Relatively weak flow aloft will keep the
threat for severe weather on the lower end, but a few more robust
storms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible, especially south of I-20 where a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecasted to reside. In general, 0.2"-0.5" of rainfall
is expected through Friday with 10% of locations observing
greater than 1.5". Increased cloudiness, precipitation, and
northerly flow behind the front will drop temperatures into the
upper 80s to low 90s.

The general model consensus is that the Southern Plains will
remain under the influence of upper troughing through the weekend
keeping an unsettled weather pattern over our region. This lines
up well with the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 Day Outlook
highlighting a greater probability for above-normal precipitation
and below-normal temperatures across North and Central Texas next
weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds near 10-15 knots or less will continue through
the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected through
Monday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  80 101  81 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                98  75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               95  76  97  77  96 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton             100  77 102  79 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            98  78 100  79 100 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas             100  80 102  81 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             96  76  98  77  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           98  77 100  78  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              96  73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       99  75 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$