723
FXUS64 KFWD 111733
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

A warm afternoon is upon us with the majority of observation sites
at 90+ degrees as of 12PM. A sparse cumulus field has developed
over portions of the region and will continue to grow over the
next several hours. Like yesterday, very isolated air-mass
showers and storms are possible late this afternoon across
western portions of North and Central Texas. Severe weather is not
expected due to a lack of greater instability and shear, however
a dry, well-mixed lower atmosphere below the 7-10 kft cloud bases
will result in a threat for gusty winds below any collapsing
shower/storm. Additionally, PWATs came in close to 1.5" on this
morning`s 12Z sounding promoting efficient rainfall producing
cells. The caveat for this is that dry air entrainment below the
cloud layer will keep any rainfall accumulation on the lower end
of the spectrum. The bottom line is that lightning and gusty winds
will be the main threats for those under and nearby any storm.
Make sure to take precaution, particularly if you find yourself
outdoors or on the water. For those that remain dry, expect a warm
afternoon with highs in the 90s to around 100 and slightly higher
heat indices.

An inverted trough across Mexico will nose eastward into South
and Central Texas over the next few days, providing enough lift
for scattered showers and storms in our far southern zones
tomorrow afternoon. Once again, storms should remain sub-severe
with lightning and gusty winds the main hazards.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/
/Saturday through Wednesday/

Through the weekend, North Central Texas will remain under the
well-advertised col persisting between the upper high over the
Rockies and a second ridge draped along the Gulf Coast. The
weakness in the height field mentioned in the short term
discussion will linger in our vicinity through Saturday. This
feature, coupled with an active sea breeze, will facilitate the
development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
our southeastern zones Saturday afternoon.

From Sunday on through the middle of next week, the Gulf Coast
ridge will gradually backbuild into North Texas, leading to a
subtle increase in heights and deep layer thicknesses. This
ridging will effectively prevent the development of any
precipitation across the region through the middle of next week.

While most daytime highs Saturday and Sunday should be limited to
the mid to upper 90s areawide, the slow increase in subsidence
and thicknesses should yield daily readings in the upper 90s to low
100s Monday through Wednesday. While we`re not expecting a major
surge in humidity through the extended period, the increase in
temperatures will promote afternoon heat indices on the order of
105 to 109 degrees next week, particularly along and east of I-35.
Heat advisories may thus resume for some areas by
Tuesday/Wednesday.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Southerly winds around 10 kts or less and VFR will prevail
through the next 24-30 hours at all TAF sites. ACT will start the
afternoon off a bit more easterly, but will eventually settle out
of the south later tonight.

There is low potential for showers and storms around D10 late
this afternoon, but the chance for direct impacts to the terminals
is low. Have opted to forego a VCTS mention in the TAF for now,
but will continue to monitor the growing cumulus field for
increased vertical development in the next few hours.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  77  97  78  96 /  20  20   0   0   5
Waco                98  74  95  76  95 /   0   0  10   0  10
Paris               94  72  95  74  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton              99  74  99  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   5
McKinney            99  74  96  75  96 /  20  20   0   0   5
Dallas             101  77  98  78  97 /  20  20   0   0   5
Terrell             99  72  95  74  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           98  74  96  76  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Temple              98  72  94  74  93 /   0   0  10   5  10
Mineral Wells       98  72  98  73  96 /  20  20   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$