649
FXUS64 KFWD 112342
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made to the previous forecast this evening.
Any isolated thunderstorm activity will quickly come to an end
after sunset tonight as daytime heating subsides. Otherwise, a
warm and humid night is in store for all of North/Central Texas.

Looking ahead into tomorrow, another afternoon of summer heat and
isolated thunderstorms will be in store. More scattered activity
with slightly higher coverage may be possible across our southern
zones through Friday evening, but ultimately it will be another
rinse and repeat of the last couple of days to end the week.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

A warm afternoon is upon us with the majority of observation sites
at 90+ degrees as of 12PM. A sparse cumulus field has developed
over portions of the region and will continue to grow over the
next several hours. Like yesterday, very isolated air-mass
showers and storms are possible late this afternoon across
western portions of North and Central Texas. Severe weather is not
expected due to a lack of greater instability and shear, however
a dry, well-mixed lower atmosphere below the 7-10 kft cloud bases
will result in a threat for gusty winds below any collapsing
shower/storm. Additionally, PWATs came in close to 1.5" on this
morning`s 12Z sounding promoting efficient rainfall producing
cells. The caveat for this is that dry air entrainment below the
cloud layer will keep any rainfall accumulation on the lower end
of the spectrum. The bottom line is that lightning and gusty winds
will be the main threats for those under and nearby any storm.
Make sure to take precaution, particularly if you find yourself
outdoors or on the water. For those that remain dry, expect a warm
afternoon with highs in the 90s to around 100 and slightly higher
heat indices.

An inverted trough across Mexico will nose eastward into South
and Central Texas over the next few days, providing enough lift
for scattered showers and storms in our far southern zones
tomorrow afternoon. Once again, storms should remain sub-severe
with lightning and gusty winds the main hazards.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

A persistent col will remain above North and Central Texas this
weekend, the relative weakness allowing the active sea breeze to
move deeper inland on Saturday. Afternoon showers and storms would
primarily impact Central and East Texas, the disorganized
convection disrupting outdoor activities with lightning and gusty
winds.

By Sunday, an inverted trough will begin invading West Texas,
which should introduce subsidence above North and Central Texas.
The resulting inhibition should keep the radar scope quiet while
adding a couple of degrees to daytime temperatures. While highs
should peak in the 90s, steadily increasing boundary layer
moisture could allow heat index values to approach 105.

During the first half of the upcoming week, we will be in the
battleground between troughing to our west and a retrograding
ridge from the east. Mid-level heights may increase during this
process, but since the ridge is unlikely to fully re-establish
itself, temperatures will only be a few degrees above normal
Monday through Wednesday. Extended MOS keeps highs in the 90s, but
the perfect-prog blend favors triple digits from North Central
Texas into the Big Country where soil moisture deficits persist.
This includes the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

During the latter half of the week, ridging in the West will
amplify as the Southeast ridge shifts equatorward. This will allow
a mid-latitude trough to dive into the Southern Plains, its
associated surface front arriving on Thursday next week. July
fronts struggle to move deep into Texas, but even if temperatures
don`t significantly drop, above normal precipitation chances will
dominate the end of the upcoming week.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...No concerns at this time.

VFR will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Very
isolated convection will likely linger through sunset tonight, but
much of this activity will remain well away from the TAF sites.
The only impacts will be to the Bowie cornerpost through the early
evening, with the D10 terminals and Waco remaining in the clear.

Otherwise, light southerly to southeasterly winds and generally
clearing skies will dominate tonight. More of the same can be
expected through tomorrow as well, with little to no impacts.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  78  96  79 /   5   0   0  10   0
Waco                74  96  75  95  77 /   0   5   5  20   5
Paris               72  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0  10   0
Denton              74  99  74  97  76 /  10   0   0   5   0
McKinney            74  97  75  95  77 /   5   0   0  10   0
Dallas              77  98  78  97  79 /   5   0   0  10   0
Terrell             72  96  74  94  76 /   5   0   0  10   0
Corsicana           75  97  75  95  77 /   0   5   5  20   5
Temple              72  95  73  94  74 /   0  10   5  20   5
Mineral Wells       72  98  73  97  75 /  10   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$