604
FXUS64 KFWD 122326
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of the Evening through Saturday/

Another July afternoon is coming to an end across North and
Central Texas as temperatures fall overnight into the low to mid
70s. Much of North Texas should remain rain-free, while Central
Texas contends with very isolated convection through the rest of
the evening. The only exception will be an outflow boundary that
is currently racing north, along which a few showers and isolated
storms could develop. Either way, any thunderstorm activity will
quickly dissipate as diurnally driven processes come to an end
with the conclusion of another day. Gradually clearing skies will
dominate the rest of the evening, with light southerly winds.

Expect a rinse and repeat of today as we move into Saturday, with
afternoon highs once again climbing into the mid to upper 90s.
The only minor difference will be an increase in isolated
thunderstorm coverage, which is the direct result of better
moisture. This activity could find its way further north,
potentially bringing summertime convection across portions of the
Metroplex as well. Main impacts will be lightning/gusty winds.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

The center of an upper level ridge is currently over the Desert
Southwest and will slowly meander towards the Southern Plains
over the next handful of days. Increasing heights and subsident
air moving into the region will allow temperatures to gradually
warm over the first half of the upcoming week, with high
temperatures in the 90s to around 100 expected. This increase in
temperature will also result in an increase in heat index, with
peak indices up to around 106 expected mainly east of I-35 through
Wednesday. This will likely meet our Heat Advisory criteria in
some places, so expect heat headlines to make a reappearance.

Thankfully we will be spared the hottest of temperatures as an
inverted trough/weakness in the ridge will persist through Tuesday
and keep the high center to our west. General afternoon garden-
variety showers and storms will be possible across east Texas in
response to the aforementioned weakness on Sunday. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance diverge on afternoon rain chances from then
on, so we`ll need to keep watch for an introduction of low PoPs
during the early week. Severe weather is not expected with any
activity at this time.

Over midweek an upper level trough will dig southeastward into the
Midwest, sending a cold front south through the Plains. This front
will move through our area late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain chances through
Thursday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...None at this time.

VFR will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Very
isolated thunderstorm activity will likely persist through the
early evening before finally coming to an end after sunset. This
activity should remain well away from the D10 terminals, with Waco
gradually clearing out this evening. Much of the same can be
expected through tomorrow, with slightly higher coverage.
Confidence remains too low to include a VCTS mention in the TAFs,
but this may need to be reassessed in future issuances.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  78  97  79 /   0  10   0  10   0
Waco                74  94  76  96  76 /  10  20   5  10   0
Paris               73  95  74  94  75 /   0  10   0  10   0
Denton              74  98  75  99  76 /   0  10   0  10   0
McKinney            74  96  76  97  76 /   0  10   0  10   0
Dallas              77  97  78  98  79 /   0  10   0  10   0
Terrell             73  94  74  94  75 /   5  10   0  10   0
Corsicana           76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20   5  10   5
Temple              73  93  74  95  74 /  10  20   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       72  97  73  98  75 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$