494
FXUS64 KFWD 130739
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Stronger ridging has thus far remained centered over the western
CONUS keeping us seasonably hot, but also removed from the hottest
temperatures. A persistent weakness in the mid level heights will
linger today across the Southern Plains while deeper moisture that
has been generally confined to Deep South Texas spreads northward.
2"+ PWs will nose into our Central TX counties by midday and
strong heating combined with weak forcing for ascent should
result in a slightly better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, particularly south of I-20. This activity will be
diurnally driven, decreasing in coverage toward sunset. PoPs will
range from 20-40% this afternoon with the highest chances across
our far southern and southeastern counties. Another mostly clear
and warm night is expected with any lingering convection
dissipating after sunset. Overnight lows will creep upward
Saturday night with most areas in the mid 70s.

Ridging will expand eastward a bit on Sunday with that deeper
moisture also getting pushed farther east into southeast Texas by
Sunday afternoon. We should still see some isolated afternoon
thunderstorms, but coverage will be less than 20% and generally
confined to our far eastern and southeastern counties.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon with
highs topping out in the upper 90s. The exception will be in our
southeastern counties where additional cloud cover may keep temps
in the lower 90s, although it will be more humid.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday and Beyond/

A ridge of high-pressure will settle over the Four Corners Region
by early next week as North and Central Texas remains beneath a
persistent col through at least midweek. Weak mid- and upper-level
flow will keep relatively dry air anchored over the region
maintaining higher rain chances to our south and east each
afternoon in the higher PWAT airmass. Expect afternoon highs to
inch toward the century mark early next week as 22-26 degreeC
850mb temperatures sprawl overhead. This slight uptick in
temperatures and a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture
through the week may cause heat index values to approach Heat
Advisory criteria at several locations in the Monday-Wednesday
timeframe.

Looking toward the end of next work week, ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to highlight an upper-level trough
digging south across the Plains toward the Mississippi River
Valley. This would send a summer cold front toward North Texas in
the Wednesday night-Thursday timeframe, increasing rain chances
through the end of the week across the region. Thunderstorm
coverage will likely peak during the afternoon/early evening
hours each day in the vicinity of this boundary during max
diurnal heating. There is currently quite a bit of spread in the
rainfall totals amongst ensemble members; highly dependent upon
the strength and southward progression of the frontal boundary.
But right now, a good starting place for likely rainfall totals
over North and Central Texas during the second half of next week
falls in the 0.25-0.75" range with isolated totals over 1.5"
(especially along/east of I-35).

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will generally prevail through the period with south winds 10
to 15 kt. We should see a little better coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms mainly south of the D10 airspace and
possibly impacting Waco, but these will be very hit/miss and
coverage will be difficult to pin down for inclusion into the TAF.
Any activity would diminish by sunset with VFR prevailing Saturday
night.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  98  80  99 /   5   0  10   0   0
Waco                93  74  96  76  98 /  30   5   5   0   0
Paris               94  73  94  75  96 /   5   0  10   0   5
Denton              97  75  98  77 100 /   5   0   5   0   0
McKinney            96  76  97  77  99 /   5   0  10   0   0
Dallas              97  77  98  79 100 /   5   0  10   0   0
Terrell             93  73  95  75  97 /  10   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           94  75  96  77  97 /  20   5  20   0   5
Temple              92  73  95  74  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  73  98  75 100 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$