374
FXUS64 KFWD 191808
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Mostly sunny and warm conditions will prevail through the rest of
the afternoon as weak high pressure settles into the Arklatex.
Light northeast winds will become a little more easterly this
afternoon with scattered fair weather cumulus. Highs today should
top out in the lower 90s.

Northwest flow will prevail through the Plains tonight into
Saturday and should send at least one shortwave southward
toward North Texas through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should be ongoing mainly off to our northwest late
tonight. This activity may clip our far northwest counties late
overnight or early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, we`ll have to see
if any remnant outflow boundaries spread south into our area which
may serve as a focus for isolated convective development on
Saturday. PoPs will generally remain less than 10% in most areas.

Slightly better rain chances may arrive late Saturday night as
another shortwave pivots through the Plains. An area of focused
low level warm advection should develop across southwest Oklahoma
and should provide support for developing convection during this
time. Some of this activity will likely spread into our northwest
counties after midnight. Rain chances will increase further headed
into Sunday and early next week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/
/Next Week/

A strongly amplified ridge will remain across the West with a
Bermuda high anchored off the East Coast. In between, negative
height anomalies will prevail, maintaining an unsettled period for
Texas with below normal temperatures and persistent rain chances.
Despite how unusual this is for July, guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the evolution of this troughing.

Early in the week, the trough will attempt to backbuild to the
southwest, sending spokes of energy into North Texas. The first
in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday, initially enhancing
convection along a frontal boundary to our northwest. Scattered
showers and storms will steadily increase in areal coverage across
the region into the afternoon hours. As a result, Sunday will be
noticeably cloudier than Saturday with lightning and gusty winds
potentially disrupting outdoor plans.

As a subsequent impulse arrives on Monday, the front will likely
push deeper into North Texas, particularly if aided by outflow.
Pooling moisture will push precipitable water values near maximum
amounts for July, most notably across Central and East Texas
where the heavy rain threat will also be maximized. Slow-moving
efficient rain producers may introduce flooding concerns,
especially in areas that have already experienced significant
rainfall during preceding days. Monday`s high temperatures will
generally be in the 80s, but daytime values may linger in the 70s
if the precipitation is persistent enough. Highs in the 70s are
rare during July and typically require considerable rainfall.
Neither DFW nor Waco has seen a July day below 80F since 2014.
(Killeen had a rainy day with a high of 79F in July 2021.)

While Monday may be the wettest day of the bunch, extraordinary
precipitable water values will linger the remainder of the week,
with additional impulses providing daily rain chances. The
cumulative impact of the rainfall will maintain the flood threat.
The frontal boundary will no longer be in play on subsequent days,
but the surface wind field should be weak enough to allow outflow
boundaries to linger, serving as focal points for renewed
development. The locations of these mesoscale features can`t be
pinpointed at this time scale, and the forecast for the middle of
next week will focus the highest PoPs and heaviest rainfall
amounts across Central and East Texas where the deepest moisture
will reside.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with scattered cumulus this
afternoon and light easterly winds becoming more southeasterly by
evening. Southerly winds 5 to 10 kt will prevail on Saturday with
better rain chances holding off until late Saturday night and
Sunday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  73  95  76  91 /   0   0   0  10  40
Waco                94  72  96  74  93 /   0   0   0   0  40
Paris               89  67  90  70  85 /   0   0   0   5  30
Denton              92  69  95  73  91 /   0   0   5  20  40
McKinney            91  69  93  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  40
Dallas              93  74  95  76  91 /   0   0   0  10  40
Terrell             91  68  92  72  88 /   0   0   0   5  40
Corsicana           92  70  93  75  92 /   0   0   0   0  40
Temple              94  72  95  73  94 /   5   0   0   0  30
Mineral Wells       93  70  95  72  91 /   0   0   5  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$