Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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519 FXUS64 KFWD 210004 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 704 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ A cluster of storms is ongoing mainly just west of our region with a few storms managing to develop in our far western counties as of this writing. This convection is being triggered by a weak boundary that continues to slowly move southeast. This boundary, along with the hot temperatures, will continue to trigger additional thunderstorms through around sunset. A few storms may be strong with gusty downburst winds possible. A shortwave will be arriving later tonight, riding along the northwesterly flow aloft. This shortwave should trigger additional convection across southwestern Oklahoma, some of which will begin moving into parts of North Texas by early Sunday morning. By sunrise, scattered showers will be possible along the I-35 corridor in North Texas. Although a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, if a storm develops, it`s expected to remain sub-severe given unfavorable shear and instability. The morning showers should continue moving southeast through the day, impacting Central and East Texas by the afternoon. A secondary area of ascent will move atop our region mid to late Sunday afternoon, once again igniting a few showers and storms. With afternoon destabilization, storms will mainly pose a lightning and gusty wind threat. Coverage is expected to remain between 20% to 40%; not everyone will see rain tomorrow. Most of the precipitation will come to an end Sunday night, leaving behind northerly winds and mostly cloudy skies. Both daytime and nighttime temperatures will remain slightly below normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 236 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ Update: No major changes were made to the previous forecast, with daily rain chances and below normal temperatures continuing through the period. The best potential for rain areawide will be on Monday, but the highest rain chances will remain across Central Texas throughout the week. Efficient rainfall rates will result in an increased potential for flooding. The highest rainfall totals are expected on Monday, with a low threat for flash flooding for areas south of the I-20 corridor where 1-3" of rain are expected on average. Persistent rain chances across Central Texas may renew flooding concerns on a daily basis. Rainfall totals through the end of the week are currently expected to be between 2-5" south of I-20. It`ll be hit-or-miss across North Texas, with average rainfall totals between 1/4" to 1" though a few locations may miss out entirely. Barnes Previous Discussion: /Monday Through Friday/ Texas will spend the upcoming week sandwiched between a strongly amplified ridge in the West and a remarkably persistent Bermuda high to the east. Early in the week, our northwest flow regime will give way to troughing that will nose into the Lone Star State from the northeast. Both of the aforementioned subtropical ridges will strengthen through midweek, and while our mid-level heights won`t significantly change, this will induce/enhance the troughing overhead. A comparatively deepening saddle will maintain minimal inhibition and daily rain chances. The persistent convective activity should serve to reinforce the relative depression aloft with some guidance suggesting a closed upper low may develop by midweek. Unseasonably cloudy conditions will prevail with below normal temperatures during what is climatologically the hottest part of the year. The National Blend of Models (NBM) has likely PoPs (at least 55 percent) within our area each day from Monday through Thursday. This is far above climatology, which is generally 15 to 25 percent across the region in late July. Aided by both a pronounced shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft and convective outflow at the surface, a cold front will invade the region on Monday. While the bulk of the morning convection may be coincident with the boundary, the activity will steadily expand in areal coverage during the daylight hours as a destabilizing uncapped boundary layer couples with increasing forcing for ascent. Widespread showers and storms ahead of the boundary will feed off of precipitable water values soaring above 2 inches. The precipitation efficiency, combined with the slow motion of individual cells, will enhance rainfall amounts. Some locations will experience multiple storms Monday afternoon, the cumulative effect of which may result in flooding. The areas of greatest concern will be across Central and East Texas, which will have the longest duration south of the boundary. The rain and extensive cloud cover will cap temperatures in the 80s, with the NBM keeping parts of the Big Country in the 70s. A similar but somewhat less rainy day will follow on Tuesday when the frontal boundary will begin to lose its resolution. Sunshine and fewer showers and storms will allow portions of North Texas to reach or exceed 90F, a scenario that will repeat itself through Friday. By midweek, the main heavy rain threat will shift into South and Southeast Texas where the richest moisture influx will be. However, further rounds of rainfall are expected Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across Central and East Texas. Any additional rainfall could initiate or reaggravate flooding concerns. With persistent cloud cover and rainfall, some locations across Central and East Texas may remain below 90F throughout the upcoming workweek. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Concerns...Morning SHRA with increasing thunderstorm potential in the afternoon. Erratic winds will be possible with any precipitation. North and Central Texas is now entering into a more active weather pattern with periodic rain chances expected through the next several days. Although a few storms are ongoing just west of the D10 airspace at this time, none of this activity is expected to impact regional airports. The first opportunity for precipitation will come tomorrow morning as showers stream into North Texas from the northwest. Much of this precipitation is expected to be in the form of rain showers, with a low potential for lightning. For now, we`ll continue to advertise VCSH starting at 09Z but will reevaluate the need for VCTS in subsequent forecasts. As instability increases in the afternoon, a few storms will be possible across North and Central Texas. Temporary wind shifts will be possible with the storms, however, confidence in wind gust timing/direction remains too low at this time. We`ll continue to refine the forecast and include finer details tonight. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 89 74 85 72 / 30 40 40 50 40 Waco 73 91 73 88 72 / 5 40 30 70 60 Paris 70 86 70 85 70 / 20 30 30 50 40 Denton 72 88 72 85 69 / 40 40 40 50 30 McKinney 73 88 71 85 70 / 30 30 40 50 40 Dallas 75 89 75 87 73 / 20 40 40 60 40 Terrell 72 88 72 86 70 / 10 30 40 60 50 Corsicana 74 91 73 87 73 / 5 40 40 70 60 Temple 73 91 72 89 70 / 5 40 20 70 60 Mineral Wells 71 90 71 84 67 / 30 40 30 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$