Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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838 FXUS64 KFWD 150459 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will continue to be centered over the Four Corners region through Tuesday, but its eastern periphery will extend well into the Southern Plains and North Texas resulting in a continued slight upward trend in temperatures. While it will be hot, a tightening gradient through the Plains will result in increased southwesterly flow. While this often leads to warmer temperatures, afternoon mixing is deep and with modest flow (~30 kt at 850 mb), we should see at least semi-breezy afternoon and evening conditions. Dewpoints will likely fall into the low/mid 60s resulting in heat indices near or just slightly above ambient air temperatures. That being said, temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to near 102 today and likely a degree or two warmer on Tuesday. While it will be hot, it shouldn`t be oppressive given the breeze and lower humidity. At this time, no changes are planned to the current Heat Advisory. No precipitation is expected today or Tuesday across the region. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Monday Night Onward/ Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned in the short term forecast above). Afternoon highs on Tuesday will peak in the mid 90s to around 103, accompanied by advisory-worthy heat indices for the majority of the region (between 103-107 degrees). An upper longwave trough will begin to dig southward across the Midwest and Plains overnight into Wednesday, shunting the ridge center further west and sending a cold front southward. This displacement of the ridge will lower afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees. Afternoon highs will still be able to reach the mid 90s to just above 100 with heat indices between 101-108 degrees. Monday`s Heat Advisory will likely be extended and/or expanded through the first half of the week, but this will come in further forecast updates. The caveat is a spread in frontal timing. Deterministic and ensemble/cluster guidance are at odds with each other in regards to FROPA, with deterministic guidance favoring an earlier FROPA. Current mid- and long-range models have the front moving into our northwestern counties by early Wednesday afternoon, while the ensembles/clusters have the front moving through late Wednesday into Thursday. We`ll keep an eye on this as temperatures will be impacted. As the region becomes influenced by the trough overhead, shortwave disturbances rounding the base of the trough will provide the lift necessary for scattered showers and storms to form along the front as it moves southward Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However, inverted V and onion-shaped sounding profiles will promote a threat for gusty winds. Additional disturbances moving across the region will keep the unsettled weather pattern going, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the weekend. Regarding temperatures late this week and weekend, the passage of the front and rain-cooled air will bring the return of below-normal temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s Thursday-Saturday, a welcome sight during the doldrums of summer. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with southerly flow around 15 kt. Intermittent wind gusts to 25 kt will be possible from afternoon through late evening at all sites. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Tuesday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 100 80 101 80 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 75 97 76 97 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 77 101 78 102 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 77 100 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 79 101 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 75 98 76 98 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 98 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 99 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$