607
FXUS64 KFWD 141935
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/
/Through Monday/

A dominant upper ridge will keep hot and rain-free weather in
place through the period. High temperatures will climb into the
mid to upper 90s today with just a handful of locations reaching
the triple digit mark. Dew points will sufficiently mix out this
afternoon, keeping heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria
between 100-105 degrees or less. Another warm and humid night is
on tap tonight with overnight lows generally falling into the mid
to upper 70s. The urban Metroplex will likely remain around 80
degrees.

Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow as the upper
level ridge continues to shift a bit further east. High
temperatures in the triple digits will become increasingly
prevalent across the region, with heat index values between
100-107 degrees for most locations. We`ll be assessing the need
for a Heat Advisory on Monday for portions of the area.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the
first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the
influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned
in the short term forecast above). Afternoon highs on Tuesday will
peak in the mid 90s to around 103, accompanied by advisory-worthy
heat indices for the majority of the region (between 103-107
degrees).

An upper longwave trough will begin to dig southward across the
Midwest and Plains overnight into Wednesday, shunting the ridge
center further west and sending a cold front southward. This
displacement of the ridge will lower afternoon temperatures a couple
of degrees. Afternoon highs will still be able to reach the mid 90s
to just above 100 with heat indices between 101-108 degrees.
Monday`s Heat Advisory will likely be extended and/or expanded
through the first half of the week, but this will come in further
forecast updates. The caveat is a spread in frontal timing.
Deterministic and ensemble/cluster guidance are at odds with each
other in regards to FROPA, with deterministic guidance favoring an
earlier FROPA. Current mid- and long-range models have the front
moving into our northwestern counties by early Wednesday afternoon,
while the ensembles/clusters have the front moving through late
Wednesday into Thursday. We`ll keep an eye on this as temperatures
will be impacted.

As the region becomes influenced by the trough overhead, shortwave
disturbances rounding the base of the trough will provide the lift
necessary for scattered showers and storms to form along the front
as it moves southward Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time,
severe weather is not expected. However, inverted V and onion-shaped
sounding profiles will promote a threat for gusty winds. Additional
disturbances moving across the region will keep the unsettled
weather pattern going, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
possible through the weekend.

Regarding temperatures late this week and weekend, the passage of
the front and rain-cooled air will bring the return of below-normal
temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the upper 80s
to mid 90s Thursday-Saturday, a welcome sight during the doldrums of
summer.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds near 10-15 knots or less will continue through
the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected through
Monday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 101  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                75 100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               76  97  77  97  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              77 102  79 103  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            78 100  79 100  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80 102  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  98  77  98  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           77 100  76 100  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  99  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75 102  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$