457
FXUS64 KFWD 152005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/
/This afternoon through Tuesday/

Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North
Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across
Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge
will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the
region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of
100 degrees in most areas.

The relatively minor piece of good news is that we`ll experience
deep mixing on both afternoons, and this will allow relatively
drier mid-level air to reach the surface, particularly west of
I-35 and south of I-20. The net effect of this is that heat
indices in and near these zones, while still hot, will not be too
outrageous considering that ambient air temperatures will be over
100 degrees. The same can`t be said for our far eastern counties,
however. Dewpoints in this region will hang tough in the 70s both
afternoons, yielding indices in the 105-111 range. The Heat
Advisory has been extended through Tuesday to account for these
trends, incorporating the same geographic configuration as the one
issued previously.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

By Tuesday night, an upper level trough will be digging southward
across the Midwest. This pattern shift will shunt the dominating
upper ridge to our west and send a cold front south across the
Plains. The front is progged to arrive in our northwestern counties
late Wednesday morning/early afternoon and will slowly continue
south throughout the day. High temperatures will still be able to
peak in the 90s to just above 100, with heat indices ranging from
99 out west to 107 in the east.

Lift from both the front itself and its associated mid-level
disturbance will work with the available moisture to produce
scattered showers and storms along the boundary as it advances
southward. While the overall severe threat with this initial
activity is low, inherent instability, a well-mixed low-level
atmosphere (inverted V profiles), and steep DCAPE would promote a
primary threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts. We`ll
keep an eye on this potential and adjust messaging as more high-
resolution models begin to cover this period. The front will
eventually wash out over south Central Texas on Thursday and
provide a focusing point for additional convective development to
end out the work week.

Mid-level troughing will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through early next week, keeping on and off rain chances going
through at least the weekend. Coverage in showers and storms will
increase by Sunday as 2+" PWATs begin to surge northward from the
Gulf. Guidance is indicating at least a wetting rainfall (at
least 0.25") across the region, with higher rainfall totals
expected in the Sunday-Monday time frame.

The post-frontal airmass and continued rain chances will keep
temperatures below normal with morning lows in the 60s/70s and
highs in the 80s/90s through Monday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/
/18z TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday afternoon, as a ridge
of upper level high pressure continues to dominate the region. A
southerly to southwesterly wind flow will continue this afternoon
through Tuesday, with sustained wind speeds averaging 9-14 knots.

Bradshaw

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 102  80 100  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                76 101  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
Paris               78  98  77  96  72 /   0   0   0  20  40
Denton              78 103  78 100  73 /   0   0   0  10  30
McKinney            79 102  79  99  73 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dallas              80 103  80 101  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
Terrell             76  99  77  98  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
Corsicana           77 100  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              73 100  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       76 103  77  99  73 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$