318
FXUS64 KFWD 160524
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Wednesday/

Clear skies and a steady south wind will result in a warm but
quiet night tonight as temperatures fall into the upper 70s by
morning. Persistent ridging will remain in place on Tuesday with
North Texas firmly beneath the eastern periphery resulting in hot
and dry conditions. Modest south-southwesterly flow beneath the
subsident ridge along with strong afternoon heating has promoted
deep mixing the last several afternoons. This should continue on
Wednesday with dewpoints falling into the mid 60s during peak
heating. This reduction in RH should result in heat indices at or
just above the actual air temperature. With high temperatures
forecast to be in the upper 90s to near 103 today, we`ll see a few
locations meet Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. The current
advisory covers this well, and no changes are anticipated at this
time.

Today will be the hottest day this week as we undergo a pattern
change through the end of the week which will certainly be
welcome this time of year. Troughing will amplify over the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes this afternoon into Wednesday
allowing a chunk of cooler Canadian air to slide southward
through the Plains while pushing our mid level ridge westward.
While summertime cold fronts are generally a rare treat, this one
will be aided southward by a rather potent surface high pressure
center around 1024 mb which represents an approximate 6-8 mb
positive anomaly. This suggests that the front shouldn`t have any
trouble making it into North Texas, and much of the high
resolution guidance now shows the front crossing the Red River on
Wednesday afternoon. Given an earlier arrival during peak heating,
we`ll likely see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
develop along the boundary and have raised PoPs accordingly. It`s
a little uncertain how much heating we`ll see ahead of the front,
but typically we have no problem warming up, and for now we`ll
keep high temperatures in the upper 90s, but there is potential
for these to need to be lowered. Given the timing of the
thunderstorm chances, there will be a threat for strong storms
with primarily a damaging wind threat through the afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

By Tuesday night, an upper level trough will be digging southward
across the Midwest. This pattern shift will shunt the dominating
upper ridge to our west and send a cold front south across the
Plains. The front is progged to arrive in our northwestern counties
late Wednesday morning/early afternoon and will slowly continue
south throughout the day. High temperatures will still be able to
peak in the 90s to just above 100, with heat indices ranging from
99 out west to 107 in the east.

Lift from both the front itself and its associated mid-level
disturbance will work with the available moisture to produce
scattered showers and storms along the boundary as it advances
southward. While the overall severe threat with this initial
activity is low, inherent instability, a well-mixed low-level
atmosphere (inverted V profiles), and steep DCAPE would promote a
primary threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts. We`ll
keep an eye on this potential and adjust messaging as more high-
resolution models begin to cover this period. The front will
eventually wash out over south Central Texas on Thursday and
provide a focusing point for additional convective development to
end out the work week.

Mid-level troughing will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through early next week, keeping on and off rain chances going
through at least the weekend. Coverage in showers and storms will
increase by Sunday as 2+" PWATs begin to surge northward from the
Gulf. Guidance is indicating at least a wetting rainfall (at
least 0.25") across the region, with higher rainfall totals
expected in the Sunday-Monday time frame.

The post-frontal airmass and continued rain chances will keep
temperatures below normal with morning lows in the 60s/70s and
highs in the 80s/90s through Monday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south winds 10 to 15 kt
and occasional gusts to 25 kt. No significant aviation concerns
are expected through Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 102  81  98  76 /   0   0   5  40  20
Waco                77 100  77  99  76 /   0   0   0  20  10
Paris               76 100  78  94  72 /   0   0   5  40  40
Denton              78 103  79  97  73 /   0   0   5  40  30
McKinney            78 101  80  97  73 /   0   0   5  40  30
Dallas              81 102  82  99  76 /   0   0   0  40  20
Terrell             77  98  78  97  74 /   0   0   0  30  20
Corsicana           77  98  77  97  76 /   0   0   0  20  20
Temple              75  99  76  98  74 /   0   0   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       76 103  77  98  73 /   0   0   5  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$