223
FXUS64 KFWD 161824
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Another hot day is in store for all of North and Central Texas,
with afternoon highs today ranging from the mid and upper 90s to
low 100s. Heat indices will be slightly lower today, but a few
locations will still meet Heat Advisory criteria. This heat
product will remain in effect through 8 PM this evening, with no
changes expected with this forecast update. Otherwise, generally
sunny skies will prevail through the day with southwesterly winds
around 10 to 15 mph. Dew points should mix into the mid 50s for
points west of I-35, while points east remain in the upper 60s.

A rare summertime pattern change lingers on the horizon, which is
thanks to an amplifying trough over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes. This will also help to push the mid level ridge further
west, decreasing its influence across North and Central Texas.
This will lead to cooler Canadian air actually making its way
south. A cold front at the leading edge of this air mass will
start to sweep south across Oklahoma, eventually making it through
portions of North Texas by Wednesday afternoon. While it will
still be hot on Wednesday, ambient temperatures will be several
degrees cooler than previous days. Highs are expected to reach
into the mid to upper 90s, although heat indices will remain below
Heat Advisory criteria. Therefore, no extension will be necessary
and the current heat product will be allowed to expire.

The cold front will increase our rain chances through Wednesday
afternoon and evening, which will also be the best opportunity for
rain that we`ve had in a while. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will likely spread across the region along the
leading edge of the front. While severe weather is not expected,
some storms could be strong with marginally severe winds.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/
/Thursday Through the Early Next Week/

The extended portion of the forecast will be dominated by an
unusual pattern for July: persistent northerly flow into Texas,
which will be sandwiched between a strongly amplified ridge in the
West and a Bermuda high to the east. This will maintain below
normal temperatures and above normal rain chances.

The cold front mentioned in the short term portion of the forecast
may take its time clearing Central and East Texas on Thursday,
keeping considerable shower/thunderstorm chances in place.
Evacuating low-level moisture will reduce the instability, and
generally weak shear should assure rather disorganized convection
with a minimal threat for strong storms. The frontal boundary will
then retreat, potentially maintaining its resolution enough to
serve as a focus for redevelopment on Friday. Even where the
boundary isn`t involved, surface heating and the absence of
inhibition may allow for scattered afternoon convection,
particularly across Central Texas where the moisture return will
occur first. A similar day will follow on Saturday with sunshine-
buoyed temperatures reaching the mid 90s, and gradually returning
moisture keeping the radar scope active during the afternoon
hours.

Guidance begins to diverge this weekend with respect to surface
boundaries and mesoscale features. There is the potential for a
second front, but even without a surface boundary involved,
returning moisture should assure rain chances persist. Increased
precipitable water values will enhance rainfall efficiency, and
in areas that encounter multiple rounds of significant rainfall
during this period, flooding issues may arise. Cloud cover will
correspondingly increase into early next week, stunting daytime
temperatures even without the impacts of rain-cooled air. Highs
may stay below 90F, potentially as much as 10 degrees below
normal during what is climatologically the hottest time of the
year. The GFS MOS is carrying a high of only 83F at DFW on Sunday,
which would likely require a significant rainfall component. In
any event, this will be a welcome respite from the summer heat,
one that looks to continue beyond the current 7-day forecast.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday Afternoon/Evening.

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the
period. Southwesterly winds will continue at around 5 to 10 knots,
with gusts upwards of 20 knots. Other than a few passing cirrus
and some generic cumulus, conditions will be fair with no impacts.

A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon
into the evening hours, along which isolated to scattered showers
and storms could develop. This may have a direct impact on the TAF
sites, which prompts me to include a line for VCTS around 21z.
Winds will turn north at around 5 to 10 knots as this front
passes through, with occasionally higher gusts possible as outflow
boundaries spread out across North and Central Texas.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   102  81  99  76  92 /   0   0  40  30  40
Waco               100  77  99  76  93 /   0   0  20  10  40
Paris               99  77  95  73  88 /   0   0  40  50  50
Denton             103  80  99  73  92 /   0   5  30  30  40
McKinney           102  80  98  74  91 /   0   0  40  40  40
Dallas             102  82 100  76  94 /   0   0  40  30  40
Terrell             99  77  97  73  90 /   0   0  40  30  50
Corsicana           99  77  99  76  92 /   0   0  20  20  50
Temple              99  75  98  75  94 /   0   0  10   5  30
Mineral Wells      103  77  99  73  92 /   0   0  30  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$