312
FXUS64 KFWD 171046
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only minor changes to the current forecast to account for a well
defined outflow boundary that is pushing into North Texas. A few
showers have developed along and just behind this boundary so
we`ve added some low PoPs through the morning to account for this.
Otherwise, this boundary should stall and serve as a focus for
additional thunderstorm development this afternoon as the main
cold front slides farther south into the region.

There also appears to be at least a conditional threat for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding through tonight from the Metroplex
eastward based on the latest high resolution guidance and trends
in the global models. Deep atmospheric moisture content along with
generally weak flow and subtle surface boundaries may provide a
focus for renewed slow moving thunderstorms during the overnight
hours. We`ll continue to monitor this potential through the day.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Thursday/

A quiet night is in progress across North and Central Texas, but
the radar scopes are active north of the Red River where a semi-
organized thunderstorm complex is ongoing. This is in response to
the first of a few shortwave troughs digging into the Plains
around the periphery of stronger ridging to the west. In addition,
a chunk of cooler Canadian air is spilling south through the
Plains where temperatures are in the 50s across parts of the
Dakotas and Minnesota. A somewhat diffuse frontal boundary is
located across northern Oklahoma and is helping to serve as the
focus for thunderstorm development tonight. Most of this activity
will remain well to the north of our area through the overnight
hours.

On Wednesday, as the aforementioned shortwave spreads into the
Arklatex, the frontal boundary will also shift southward, likely
aided by thunderstorm outflow, and will cross the Red River during
the afternoon. While there won`t be a sharp temperature drop, it
will be accompanied by a wind shift to the north and increased
cloud cover. We`ll remain hot ahead of the boundary with
temperatures likely again in the mid to upper 90s, but scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during peak heating along
the boundary by mid to late afternoon. The boundary should be near
the I-20 corridor during this time with our first decent rain
chances expected in the Metroplex and spreading south into the
late evening hours. We`ll have PoPs at 30-50% during this time as
they should still be scattered in nature. While we can`t rule out
a few strong storms with gusty winds, generally weak flow and
modest instability should limit the overall threat for severe
weather.

It`s a little uncertain whether or not there will be any
organization to the cluster of storms into the evening hours with
the current thinking that they`ll likely persist for several hours
after sunset, but with a general downward trend in intensity. The
boundary itself will continue to push southward with additional
thunderstorm chances on Thursday mainly south of I-20. High
temperatures on Thursday should only manage the upper 80s and
lower 90s with more clouds and a light north wind.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 405 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/Friday Through Next Week/

Unsettled weather will prevail this weekend and throughout the
upcoming week. During this period, North and Central Texas will
transition from a northerly flow regime to upper troughing, two
unseasonal patterns that will maintain below normal temperatures
and above normal rain chances.

A low-level circulation associated with an aging frontal boundary
will likely be over Southeast Texas on Friday. Its proximity will
keep daytime showers and storms in the forecast for our Central
and East Texas counties. But compared to Thursday, much more
abundant sunshine should allow most areas to reach the 90s, even
mid 90s across the Big Country.

Although daytime temperatures will still be below normal across
much of the region, Saturday may be the warmest day of the bunch
with sunshine dominating once again. However, a shortwave
embedded in northerly flow aloft may introduce some afternoon
convection, particularly across western portions of North Texas.

By Sunday, our northerly flow regime will give way to pronounced
troughing in the Central Plains. This will mean an unseasonally
cloudy period with daily rain chances. The rain chances (and
rainfall amounts) will peak Sunday and Monday but will continue
through the upcoming week. With considerable cloud cover and
well-timed rainfall, some locations will see high temperatures
only in the 80s. The convection should remain rather disorganized
with little concern for severe weather. But with precipitable
water values soaring to near maximum values for July, heavy
rainfall will likely accompany the activity. For many areas,
precipitation deficits this summer should preclude flooding
issues, but the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of rain may
eventually introduce some flooding concerns.

.CLIMATE...

DFW Airport reached 101 degrees on Tuesday, the 8th triple-digit
day this year. This tally is ahead of the 30-year normal for the
year to date, which is 5 days.

However, Waco and Killeen are behind schedule. For both, the
year-to-date normal is 6 days. Waco has only had 3 triple-digit
highs so far this year while Killeen recorded its 5th of the year
on Tuesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail outside of any convective areas today and
tonight. The main concern in the immediate short term is an
approaching outflow boundary which may temporarily switch winds to
northwesterly for a few hours before becoming more westerly and
lighter. We`ll make some adjustments to the wind direction in the
latest TAFs. Otherwise, a few showers have developed just behind
the boundary but these should be short lived with additional
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. No significant changes to
the current TS timing are anticipated for this afternoon. Light
northerly flow and at least low continued TS chances are expected
overnight.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  74  90  74  92 /  40  50  40   5  10
Waco                98  75  91  72  93 /  20  40  60  20  30
Paris               92  71  86  69  88 /  50  70  40   5   5
Denton              96  72  90  70  93 /  40  50  30   5  10
McKinney            95  73  88  71  91 /  50  60  40   5  10
Dallas              97  75  90  74  93 /  50  50  40  10  10
Terrell             95  74  88  71  90 /  50  60  50  10  10
Corsicana           97  74  87  73  91 /  30  50  60  20  20
Temple              98  74  90  71  93 /  10  40  50  20  30
Mineral Wells       96  72  92  71  93 /  30  30  30   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$