Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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160 FXUS64 KFWD 180900 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ /Overnight through Friday/ Convection has generally been on the decrease through the late evening, but over the last hour we`ve seen an uptick in coverage across our eastern counties, and this trend looks like it will continue at least for a few hours. Surface features are a little messy at this time with light winds and only weak temperature and moisture gradients which makes it a little difficult to pin down exactly where the frontal boundary is located. Based on the latest observations, it looks like it`s across the northern parts of the Hill Country and then stretching back northward into the Arklatex. This broad area of low level convergence is where much of the ongoing convective activity is located. A slow southward progression is expected through the rest of the night with rain chances highest east of I-35 and across our far eastern counties. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threat given the deep moisture content, and slow storm motions will likely exacerbate this potential through the overnight. On Thursday, the frontal boundary will continue to push farther south with some drier air spilling into our northwest counties. Most areas should remain precipitation free although we`ll still have some 20-30% PoPs across our far eastern counties and some late afternoon 20% PoPs back farther west into the I-35 corridor to account for any isolated storms during peak heating. Otherwise, a light north wind and temperatures in the lower 90s can be expected. Friday should feature mainly dry conditions with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend Through Next Week/ Late in the week, a shortwave will transition into a closed upper low over the Upper Midwest. This feature will backbuild to the southwest during the weekend, sending spokes of energy into North Texas early next week. The resulting troughing over the Lone Star State will persist much of the upcoming week, resulting in considerable cloudiness and daily rain chances. Aided by northerly flow aloft, another cold front will invade the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Saturday. This will organize our surface wind field back to seasonal southerly winds, eroding what`s left of the aging frontal boundary to our south. The new front will remain to our northwest, and although some sea breeze showers and storms may enter our far southeast during the afternoon, Saturday should be otherwise mostly sunny and rain- free. This will likely be the warmest day since before this week`s pattern shift, but with temperatures peaking from near 90F in East Texas to the mid 90s along and west of the I-35 corridor, highs will still be near or below normal for late July. The first in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday with scattered convection increasing in areal coverage into the afternoon hours. Sunday will be cloudier than Saturday with lightning and gusty winds potentially disrupting outdoor plans. The aforementioned front may attempt to invade North Texas, but without adequate convection to enhance its motion with outflow, it may make little progress. But as a subsequent impulse arrives on Monday, the front will likely push deep into North Texas, serving as a focus for another round of showers and storms. Monday may be the wettest day of the bunch as pooling moisture enhances precipitation efficiency. The unsettled pattern will linger throughout the upcoming week, with additional rounds of rainfall each day. Rain/cloud-reduced instability and generally weak shear should preclude severe weather, but with each successive bout of heavy rainfall, flooding concerns will increase. With minimal rainfall since May, much of North Texas has developed considerable soil moisture deficits, which will initially reduce runoff. However, there has already been substantial rainfall with our current frontal intrusion, particularly across East Texas where flooding issues may arise first. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail with a light north wind overnight into early Thursday with mid cloud cover thinning toward morning. Most of the convection tonight will remain to the east of the major airports, but there is a low chance for an additional shower/storm through the overnight. Most of the convection will again be to the south and east of the major airports on Thursday with VFR prevailing. North winds 5 to 10 kt will become more easterly later in the day. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 74 93 73 93 / 10 5 0 0 0 Waco 94 73 93 70 95 / 20 5 5 0 5 Paris 85 69 89 66 89 / 40 10 0 0 0 Denton 92 70 92 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 91 69 91 69 93 / 20 5 0 0 0 Dallas 93 75 93 73 95 / 10 5 5 0 0 Terrell 90 70 91 68 92 / 30 5 5 0 5 Corsicana 90 72 91 70 94 / 20 10 10 0 5 Temple 95 72 94 70 95 / 40 5 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 94 70 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$