Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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477 FXUS64 KFWD 210900 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 110 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ /Through Monday/ Scattered and disorganized convection will be the story through the short term period as broad modest ascent prevails in the presence of upper troughing while a diffuse frontal zone sags towards North Texas later today. Synoptic scale ascent is aiding in ongoing high-based activity across western North Texas, but much more widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon as surface-based diurnal destabilization is achieved. The moderate CAPE but low shear environment typical of late July will allow for some degree of microburst potential, but organized severe weather is not expected. While peak coverage will occur through the late afternoon and evening period, much more isolated convective activity may linger through the overnight hours into Monday morning, not dissimilar from tonight`s radar presentation. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty for Monday`s convective placement/coverage as recent CAM guidance has become more aggressive with shunting the frontal zone farther south into Central Texas, limiting any source of focused ascent through much of our CWA. Have cautiously lowered PoPs with this scenario in mind as coverage may only be in the 20-40% range for most of the forecast area during the daytime on Monday. Even if a drier solution were to come to fruition, the combination of slightly cooler post-frontal air and increased cloud cover should still hold high temperatures below normal, with most locations struggling to approach 90 degrees. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Through Saturday/ Mid-latitude troughing will dig into the Lone Star State on Tuesday, and the mid-level trough axis will remain anchored over us into the upcoming weekend. This will mean a protracted period of unsettled weather with below normal temperatures and daily rain chances. Despite minimal inhibition regionwide, the orientation of the trough will focus the highest and most persistent rain chances across Central and East Texas. These areas will benefit from the richest moisture flux and the more favorable forcing for ascent. The result will be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts over the course of the week, from scant totals in our northwest to potential flooding in Central Texas. As the showers and storms will be largely diurnally driven, cloud cover during the daylight hours will likely keep Central and East Texas below 90F into the upcoming weekend. With considerable rainfall, some locations could experience a day with temperatures peaking in the 70s. But after an unseasonably cloudy day on Monday, the sun will return Tuesday to much of North Texas where sunshine will outpace cloud cover the remainder of the week. While still below normal, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s across much of North Texas from Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. 25 .CLIMATE... Our current forecast keeps Waco`s temperatures below 90F for 5 consecutive days. During the latter half of July, this has only happened once before (July 21-25, 1938). Killeen had a rainy stretch of 6 consecutive days below 90F in late July 2007. Our current forecast, which has highs in the 80s Monday through Saturday, would match that streak. && .AVIATION... /Issued 110 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024/ /06z TAFs/ Scattered convection exists on the western periphery of D10 as of 06z, and the eastward extend of this activity towards the TAF sites remains uncertain through the rest of the overnight period. Based on recent trends, it is likely that most of these cells remain west of the terminals themselves, but signs of any new development further to the east may warrant a brief inclusion of VCSH/VCTS prior to 12z. Greater convective chances are forecast from midday through late afternoon, coinciding with peak heating and the arrival of a weak surface front. A window of VCTS will be maintained at all airports during this time period, with increasing cloud cover in the 5-10 kft layer accompanying afternoon thunderstorm activity. Outside of convective outflow boundaries, a southeast wind will prevail today before winds take on a more easterly or perhaps even northeasterly direction by Monday morning in the presence of the diffuse frontal zone. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 88 72 88 / 50 40 30 20 30 Waco 92 72 90 71 86 / 60 50 60 50 60 Paris 86 70 86 70 86 / 30 20 30 20 30 Denton 90 70 89 70 89 / 40 40 30 20 20 McKinney 88 71 87 71 88 / 40 40 30 20 30 Dallas 90 74 89 73 89 / 50 40 30 30 30 Terrell 89 71 89 70 86 / 40 40 50 30 40 Corsicana 93 73 90 72 87 / 50 50 60 50 60 Temple 93 71 90 70 86 / 50 50 60 50 70 Mineral Wells 92 71 88 69 89 / 40 30 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$