199
FXUS64 KFWD 190610
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
110 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

An upper trough axis and associated frontal zone have shifted
entirely south of the forecast area overnight, and all convection
has departed to the south accordingly as of 1 AM. A mostly dry day
is forecast for North and Central Texas as subsidence takes hold,
while highs rebound a few degrees into the mid 90s with less cloud
cover and rain-cooled outflow air present compared to yesterday.
Near-surface flow will begin returning to southeasterly later in
the day, while the now diffuse frontal zone undergoes a slow
northward retreat. This will open the door for slightly hotter and
more humid conditions on Saturday. However, a secondary frontal
zone advancing down the Plains and its resultant convection may
encroach on our northwestern zones during the daytime. This may
cast some mid/high cloud cover overhead during peak heating, or
could conceivably even bring isolated convective activity into
North Texas by late morning or afternoon. Have expanded Saturday`s
PoPs for our northwestern zones accordingly although the greater
storm chances still look to hold off until the second half of the
weekend.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

A temporary return to uncomfortably hot weather will occur on
Saturday as the front currently draped across South Central and
Southeast Texas lifts north as a warm front. Highs in the mid 90s
with dewpoints approaching 70 will create max heat index values
near 100 for several locations. Fortunately, conditions will
likely not reach heat advisory criteria.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across
western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas Saturday afternoon as an
exceptionally slow moving upper trough eases south through the
Central and Southern Plains. Convection will likely initialize
along the aforementioned surface front and will push southeast
into North Texas Saturday night. The front will return southeast
as a "cold" front along with the scattered showers and storms,
before stalling stalling somewhere across the forecast area on
Sunday.

A couple of shortwaves will round the southern flank of the
parent trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, with activity
focused along the front or any outflow boundaries resulting from
previous convection. The location of the highest rain chances will
depend on the position of the front and mesoscale boundaries,
which is uncertain at this juncture, so will include chance POPs
area-wide both Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is unlikely
either day, but instability will be high enough to support some
strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain.

By Tuesday, the front will have shifted south to near the
southern CWA boundary while the upper trough expands southwest
across the region. This pattern will remain in place through the
end of next week. The National Blended Model hasn`t quite caught
up to this scenario and is generating widespread high POPs across
most of the region for the Tuesday through next Thursday period.
This may be true for the Central Texas counties, but POPs will
decrease substantially the farther north and away from the surface
front you go. Will maintain sight chance POPs along the Red
River, chance across most of the region, with some likely POPs
across the southern-most counties.

With this expected pattern in place, we will need to keep an eye
on the flood potential across mainly Central Texas next week where
multiple rounds of rain, some heavy, are looking like a good
possibility. Whatever the case, rain, clouds, and the passage of
the front will bring pleasant temperatures by July standards in
Texas.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

No significant aviation concerns are forecast through the period
with all convective activity expected to remain displaced from
D10. A small percentage of guidance indicates that very patchy low
stratus may develop around daybreak this morning which would
likely be at MVFR heights, but the likelihood of this directly
affecting a TAF site is too low to include in the forecast at
this time. Light northeast winds will prevail today before
gradually transitioning to light southeasterly later this evening.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  73  94  76 /   5   0   0  10  20
Waco                72  92  71  95  75 /   5   0   0   5   5
Paris               68  88  66  89  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
Denton              71  93  70  95  72 /   5   0   0  10  20
McKinney            70  91  69  93  73 /   5   0   0   5  20
Dallas              75  93  72  95  76 /   5   0   0   5  20
Terrell             71  90  69  92  72 /  10   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           73  92  71  94  75 /   5   0   0   5   5
Temple              73  93  71  95  75 /  40   5   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  93  70  95  72 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$