832
FXUS64 KFWD 191059
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A mostly dry day is forecast as North and Central Texas becomes
positioned within an area of mid-level subsidence residing between
two sources of ascent to the north and south. Convective activity
is largely expected to remain southeast of the area today, tied
more closely to a lingering surface frontal zone. Additional low
convective chances return to northwest Texas tomorrow as residual
showers and thunderstorms associated with a secondary upstream
front drift towards North Texas.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

An upper trough axis and associated frontal zone have shifted
entirely south of the forecast area overnight, and all convection
has departed to the south accordingly as of 1 AM. A mostly dry day
is forecast for North and Central Texas as subsidence takes hold,
while highs rebound a few degrees into the mid 90s with less cloud
cover and rain-cooled outflow air present compared to yesterday.
Near-surface flow will begin returning to southeasterly later in
the day, while the now diffuse frontal zone undergoes a slow
northward retreat. This will open the door for slightly hotter and
more humid conditions on Saturday. However, a secondary frontal
zone advancing down the Plains and its resultant convection may
encroach on our northwestern zones during the daytime. This may
cast some mid/high cloud cover overhead during peak heating, or
could conceivably even bring isolated convective activity into
North Texas by late morning or afternoon. Have expanded Saturday`s
PoPs for our northwestern zones accordingly although the greater
storm chances still look to hold off until the second half of the
weekend.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/
/Next Week/

A strongly amplified ridge will remain across the West with a
Bermuda high anchored off the East Coast. In between, negative
height anomalies will prevail, maintaining an unsettled period for
Texas with below normal temperatures and persistent rain chances.
Despite how unusual this is for July, guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the evolution of this troughing.

Early in the week, the trough will attempt to backbuild to the
southwest, sending spokes of energy into North Texas. The first
in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday, initially enhancing
convection along a frontal boundary to our northwest. Scattered
showers and storms will steadily increase in areal coverage across
the region into the afternoon hours. As a result, Sunday will be
noticeably cloudier than Saturday with lightning and gusty winds
potentially disrupting outdoor plans.

As a subsequent impulse arrives on Monday, the front will likely
push deeper into North Texas, particularly if aided by outflow.
Pooling moisture will push precipitable water values near maximum
amounts for July, most notably across Central and East Texas
where the heavy rain threat will also be maximized. Slow-moving
efficient rain producers may introduce flooding concerns,
especially in areas that have already experienced significant
rainfall during preceding days. Monday`s high temperatures will
generally be in the 80s, but daytime values may linger in the 70s
if the precipitation is persistent enough. Highs in the 70s are
rare during July and typically require considerable rainfall.
Neither DFW nor Waco has seen a July day below 80F since 2014.
(Killeen had a rainy day with a high of 79F in July 2021.)

While Monday may be the wettest day of the bunch, extraordinary
precipitable water values will linger the remainder of the week,
with additional impulses providing daily rain chances. The
cumulative impact of the rainfall will maintain the flood threat.
The frontal boundary will no longer be in play on subsequent days,
but the surface wind field should be weak enough to allow outflow
boundaries to linger, serving as focal points for renewed
development. The locations of these mesoscale features can`t be
pinpointed at this time scale, and the forecast for the middle of
next week will focus the highest PoPs and heaviest rainfall
amounts across Central and East Texas where the deepest moisture
will reside.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

No significant aviation concerns are forecast through the period
with all convective activity expected to remain displaced from
D10. Very patchy MVFR stratus near 2 kft has developed across
parts of North Texas early this morning, but these clouds are
unlikely to result in ceilings at the TAF sites before
dissipating later this morning. Otherwise, light northeast winds
will prevail today before gradually transitioning to light
southeasterly later this evening.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  73  95  76  91 /   0   0  10  20  40
Waco                93  70  96  74  93 /   0   0   5   5  40
Paris               88  66  89  70  85 /   0   0   0  10  30
Denton              93  69  95  73  91 /   0   0  10  20  40
McKinney            91  69  94  73  88 /   0   0   5  20  40
Dallas              93  72  95  76  91 /   0   0   5  10  40
Terrell             90  68  92  72  88 /   0   0   5  10  40
Corsicana           92  71  94  73  92 /   0   0   5   5  40
Temple              94  70  96  73  94 /   5   0   5   5  30
Mineral Wells       94  69  95  73  91 /   0   5  10  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$