425
FXUS64 KFWD 201936
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
236 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Scattered elevated showers continue to spread into North Texas
early this afternoon but coverage is pretty low and mainly
northwest of the Metroplex. This activity will be intermittent
into the early afternoon with an uptick in convection expected a
little later throughout peak heating mainly to the west. Outside
of any convection, a warm and mostly sunny day is in store with
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

Later tonight, convection will increase across parts of western
Oklahoma in response to an upstream shortwave and frontal
boundary. This activity should mainly stay to the northwest
initially, but will drift into the region closer to morning.
There is a little uncertainty as to whether or not these showers
and storms will maintain their intensity toward morning, with the
most likely scenario suggesting they`ll weaken as they enter North
Texas. We`ll show increasing PoPs across the northwest late
tonight spreading farther south into the I-20 corridor by late
morning. With the frontal boundary sagging southward into North
Texas on Sunday, we should see an additional increase in scattered
showers and storms by early afternoon along and south of I-20.
This will of course depend on the location of the frontal boundary
which will be the primary mechanism for new storm development.
Much of the convection will be diurnally driven, however we`ll
maintain 20-40% PoPs into Sunday night as another upstream
shortwave will spread through the Southern Plains in the presence
of deep moisture across Central and North Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made to the previous forecast, with daily
rain chances and below normal temperatures continuing through the
period. The best potential for rain areawide will be on Monday,
but the highest rain chances will remain across Central Texas
throughout the week. Efficient rainfall rates will result in an
increased potential for flooding. The highest rainfall totals are
expected on Monday, with a low threat for flash flooding for areas
south of the I-20 corridor where 1-3" of rain are expected on
average. Persistent rain chances across Central Texas may renew
flooding concerns on a daily basis. Rainfall totals through the
end of the week are currently expected to be between 2-5" south of
I-20. It`ll be hit-or-miss across North Texas, with average
rainfall totals between 1/4" to 1" though a few locations may miss
out entirely.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Through Friday/

Texas will spend the upcoming week sandwiched between a strongly
amplified ridge in the West and a remarkably persistent Bermuda
high to the east. Early in the week, our northwest flow regime
will give way to troughing that will nose into the Lone Star
State from the northeast. Both of the aforementioned subtropical
ridges will strengthen through midweek, and while our mid-level
heights won`t significantly change, this will induce/enhance the
troughing overhead. A comparatively deepening saddle will maintain
minimal inhibition and daily rain chances. The persistent
convective activity should serve to reinforce the relative
depression aloft with some guidance suggesting a closed upper low
may develop by midweek. Unseasonably cloudy conditions will
prevail with below normal temperatures during what is
climatologically the hottest part of the year. The National Blend
of Models (NBM) has likely PoPs (at least 55 percent) within our
area each day from Monday through Thursday. This is far above
climatology, which is generally 15 to 25 percent across the region
in late July.

Aided by both a pronounced shortwave embedded in northerly flow
aloft and convective outflow at the surface, a cold front will
invade the region on Monday. While the bulk of the morning
convection may be coincident with the boundary, the activity will
steadily expand in areal coverage during the daylight hours as a
destabilizing uncapped boundary layer couples with increasing
forcing for ascent. Widespread showers and storms ahead of the
boundary will feed off of precipitable water values soaring above
2 inches. The precipitation efficiency, combined with the slow
motion of individual cells, will enhance rainfall amounts. Some
locations will experience multiple storms Monday afternoon, the
cumulative effect of which may result in flooding. The areas of
greatest concern will be across Central and East Texas, which will
have the longest duration south of the boundary. The rain and
extensive cloud cover will cap temperatures in the 80s, with the
NBM keeping parts of the Big Country in the 70s.

A similar but somewhat less rainy day will follow on Tuesday when
the frontal boundary will begin to lose its resolution. Sunshine
and fewer showers and storms will allow portions of North Texas to
reach or exceed 90F, a scenario that will repeat itself through
Friday. By midweek, the main heavy rain threat will shift into
South and Southeast Texas where the richest moisture influx will
be. However, further rounds of rainfall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, particularly across Central and East Texas. Any
additional rainfall could initiate or reaggravate flooding
concerns. With persistent cloud cover and rainfall, some locations
across Central and East Texas may remain below 90F throughout the
upcoming workweek.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Isolated elevated showers will continue mainly northwest of the
major airports this afternoon. Otherwise VFR will prevail through
tonight with southeast winds 10 kt or less. A cluster of showers
and storms should spread south out of Oklahoma early Sunday
morning and we`ll include a VCSH for this activity as it should be
on a downward trend. Afternoon heating and a frontal boundary in
proximity to I-20 should support an uptick in scattered
thunderstorms by midday Sunday. We`ll have a VCTS in by 17Z to
account for this. Outside of any convection, VFR will prevail.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  91  74  85  72 /  30  50  40  60  40
Waco                73  94  73  87  71 /   5  30  30  70  60
Paris               71  89  70  84  69 /  20  30  30  60  40
Denton              72  90  72  84  69 /  40  50  40  50  40
McKinney            72  90  71  86  70 /  30  40  40  60  40
Dallas              78  92  75  86  73 /  20  40  40  60  50
Terrell             72  92  72  85  70 /  10  30  40  70  60
Corsicana           74  93  73  87  72 /   5  30  40  70  60
Temple              74  94  72  88  70 /   5  30  20  70  60
Mineral Wells       73  88  71  84  68 /  30  50  30  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$