Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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443 FXUS64 KFWD 201751 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ Scattered elevated showers continue to spread into North Texas early this afternoon but coverage is pretty low and mainly northwest of the Metroplex. This activity will be intermittent into the early afternoon with an uptick in convection expected a little later throughout peak heating mainly to the west. Outside of any convection, a warm and mostly sunny day is in store with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Later tonight, convection will increase across parts of western Oklahoma in response to an upstream shortwave and frontal boundary. This activity should mainly stay to the northwest initially, but will drift into the region closer to morning. There is a little uncertainty as to whether or not these showers and storms will maintain their intensity toward morning, with the most likely scenario suggesting they`ll weaken as they enter North Texas. We`ll show increasing PoPs across the northwest late tonight spreading farther south into the I-20 corridor by late morning. With the frontal boundary sagging southward into North Texas on Sunday, we should see an additional increase in scattered showers and storms by early afternoon along and south of I-20. This will of course depend on the location of the frontal boundary which will be the primary mechanism for new storm development. Much of the convection will be diurnally driven, however we`ll maintain 20-40% PoPs into Sunday night as another upstream shortwave will spread through the Southern Plains in the presence of deep moisture across Central and North Texas. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/ /Monday Through Friday/ Texas will spend the upcoming week sandwiched between a strongly amplified ridge in the West and a remarkably persistent Bermuda high to the east. Early in the week, our northwest flow regime will give way to troughing that will nose into the Lone Star State from the northeast. Both of the aforementioned subtropical ridges will strengthen through midweek, and while our mid-level heights won`t significantly change, this will induce/enhance the troughing overhead. A comparatively deepening saddle will maintain minimal inhibition and daily rain chances. The persistent convective activity should serve to reinforce the relative depression aloft with some guidance suggesting a closed upper low may develop by midweek. Unseasonably cloudy conditions will prevail with below normal temperatures during what is climatologically the hottest part of the year. The National Blend of Models (NBM) has likely PoPs (at least 55 percent) within our area each day from Monday through Thursday. This is far above climatology, which is generally 15 to 25 percent across the region in late July. Aided by both a pronounced shortwave embedded in northerly flow aloft and convective outflow at the surface, a cold front will invade the region on Monday. While the bulk of the morning convection may be coincident with the boundary, the activity will steadily expand in areal coverage during the daylight hours as a destabilizing uncapped boundary layer couples with increasing forcing for ascent. Widespread showers and storms ahead of the boundary will feed off of precipitable water values soaring above 2 inches. The precipitation efficiency, combined with the slow motion of individual cells, will enhance rainfall amounts. Some locations will experience multiple storms Monday afternoon, the cumulative effect of which may result in flooding. The areas of greatest concern will be across Central and East Texas, which will have the longest duration south of the boundary. The rain and extensive cloud cover will cap temperatures in the 80s, with the NBM keeping parts of the Big Country in the 70s. A similar but somewhat less rainy day will follow on Tuesday when the frontal boundary will begin to lose its resolution. Sunshine and fewer showers and storms will allow portions of North Texas to reach or exceed 90F, a scenario that will repeat itself through Friday. By midweek, the main heavy rain threat will shift into South and Southeast Texas where the richest moisture influx will be. However, further rounds of rainfall are expected Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across Central and East Texas. Any additional rainfall could initiate or reaggravate flooding concerns. With persistent cloud cover and rainfall, some locations across Central and East Texas may remain below 90F throughout the upcoming workweek. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Isolated elevated showers will continue mainly northwest of the major airports this afternoon. Otherwise VFR will prevail through tonight with southeast winds 10 kt or less. A cluster of showers and storms should spread south out of Oklahoma early Sunday morning and we`ll include a VCSH for this activity as it should be on a downward trend. Afternoon heating and a frontal boundary in proximity to I-20 should support an uptick in scattered thunderstorms by midday Sunday. We`ll have a VCTS in by 17Z to account for this. Outside of any convection, VFR will prevail. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 77 91 74 85 / 10 30 50 40 60 Waco 95 73 94 73 87 / 0 5 30 30 70 Paris 90 71 89 70 84 / 0 20 30 30 60 Denton 94 72 90 72 84 / 20 40 50 40 50 McKinney 93 72 90 71 86 / 5 30 40 40 60 Dallas 95 78 92 75 86 / 10 20 40 40 60 Terrell 91 72 92 72 85 / 0 10 30 40 70 Corsicana 92 74 93 73 87 / 0 5 30 40 70 Temple 94 74 94 72 88 / 0 5 30 20 70 Mineral Wells 95 73 88 71 84 / 20 30 50 30 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$