Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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210 FXUS64 KFWD 141733 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep hot and rain-free weather in place through the period. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s today with just a handful of locations reaching the triple digit mark. Dew points will sufficiently mix out this afternoon, keeping heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria between 100-105 degrees or less. Another warm and humid night is on tap tonight with overnight lows generally falling into the mid to upper 70s. The urban Metroplex will likely remain around 80 degrees. Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow as the upper level ridge continues to shift a bit further east. High temperatures in the triple digits will become increasingly prevalent across the region, with heat index values between 100-107 degrees for most locations. We`ll be assessing the need for a Heat Advisory on Monday for portions of the area. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Tuesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a strong mid-level ridge centered over New Mexico through Wednesday. Expect the hottest temperatures of the week Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon highs exceeding the century mark across much of North Texas. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in several locations Tuesday afternoon becoming more widespread Wednesday afternoon with an increase in boundary-level moisture. A shortwave trough will dig south across the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday sending an associated cold front into North Texas by Wednesday evening. This frontal boundary along with a series of vorticity maxima rounding about the base of the mid-level trough will provide support for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday night through the end of the work week. A gradual north to south progression of thunderstorm activity is expected as the boundary slowly pushes south and mixes out over Central Texas late Thursday into early Friday. Relatively weak flow aloft will keep the threat for severe weather on the lower end, but a few more robust storms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, especially south of I-20 where a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecasted to reside. In general, 0.2"-0.5" of rainfall is expected through Friday with 10% of locations observing greater than 1.5". Increased cloudiness, precipitation, and northerly flow behind the front will drop temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. The general model consensus is that the Southern Plains will remain under the influence of upper troughing through the weekend keeping an unsettled weather pattern over our region. This lines up well with the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 Day Outlook highlighting a greater probability for above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures across North and Central Texas next weekend. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds near 10-15 knots or less will continue through the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Monday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 80 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 95 76 97 77 96 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 100 77 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 98 78 100 79 100 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 100 80 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 96 76 98 77 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 98 77 100 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Temple 96 73 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 75 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$