Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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607 FXUS64 KFWD 141935 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Through Monday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep hot and rain-free weather in place through the period. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s today with just a handful of locations reaching the triple digit mark. Dew points will sufficiently mix out this afternoon, keeping heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria between 100-105 degrees or less. Another warm and humid night is on tap tonight with overnight lows generally falling into the mid to upper 70s. The urban Metroplex will likely remain around 80 degrees. Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow as the upper level ridge continues to shift a bit further east. High temperatures in the triple digits will become increasingly prevalent across the region, with heat index values between 100-107 degrees for most locations. We`ll be assessing the need for a Heat Advisory on Monday for portions of the area. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night Onward/ Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned in the short term forecast above). Afternoon highs on Tuesday will peak in the mid 90s to around 103, accompanied by advisory-worthy heat indices for the majority of the region (between 103-107 degrees). An upper longwave trough will begin to dig southward across the Midwest and Plains overnight into Wednesday, shunting the ridge center further west and sending a cold front southward. This displacement of the ridge will lower afternoon temperatures a couple of degrees. Afternoon highs will still be able to reach the mid 90s to just above 100 with heat indices between 101-108 degrees. Monday`s Heat Advisory will likely be extended and/or expanded through the first half of the week, but this will come in further forecast updates. The caveat is a spread in frontal timing. Deterministic and ensemble/cluster guidance are at odds with each other in regards to FROPA, with deterministic guidance favoring an earlier FROPA. Current mid- and long-range models have the front moving into our northwestern counties by early Wednesday afternoon, while the ensembles/clusters have the front moving through late Wednesday into Thursday. We`ll keep an eye on this as temperatures will be impacted. As the region becomes influenced by the trough overhead, shortwave disturbances rounding the base of the trough will provide the lift necessary for scattered showers and storms to form along the front as it moves southward Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However, inverted V and onion-shaped sounding profiles will promote a threat for gusty winds. Additional disturbances moving across the region will keep the unsettled weather pattern going, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the weekend. Regarding temperatures late this week and weekend, the passage of the front and rain-cooled air will bring the return of below-normal temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s Thursday-Saturday, a welcome sight during the doldrums of summer. Prater && .AVIATION... /Issued 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds near 10-15 knots or less will continue through the period. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Monday. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 75 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 76 97 77 97 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 77 102 79 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 100 79 100 78 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 102 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 76 98 77 98 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 100 76 100 77 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 102 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$