838
FXUS64 KFWD 150459
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Mid level ridging will continue to be centered over the Four
Corners region through Tuesday, but its eastern periphery will
extend well into the Southern Plains and North Texas resulting in
a continued slight upward trend in temperatures. While it will be
hot, a tightening gradient through the Plains will result in
increased southwesterly flow. While this often leads to warmer
temperatures, afternoon mixing is deep and with modest flow (~30
kt at 850 mb), we should see at least semi-breezy afternoon and
evening conditions. Dewpoints will likely fall into the low/mid
60s resulting in heat indices near or just slightly above ambient
air temperatures. That being said, temperatures will climb into
the upper 90s to near 102 today and likely a degree or two warmer
on Tuesday. While it will be hot, it shouldn`t be oppressive given
the breeze and lower humidity. At this time, no changes are
planned to the current Heat Advisory. No precipitation is expected
today or Tuesday across the region.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the
first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the
influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned
in the short term forecast above). Afternoon highs on Tuesday will
peak in the mid 90s to around 103, accompanied by advisory-worthy
heat indices for the majority of the region (between 103-107
degrees).

An upper longwave trough will begin to dig southward across the
Midwest and Plains overnight into Wednesday, shunting the ridge
center further west and sending a cold front southward. This
displacement of the ridge will lower afternoon temperatures a couple
of degrees. Afternoon highs will still be able to reach the mid 90s
to just above 100 with heat indices between 101-108 degrees.
Monday`s Heat Advisory will likely be extended and/or expanded
through the first half of the week, but this will come in further
forecast updates. The caveat is a spread in frontal timing.
Deterministic and ensemble/cluster guidance are at odds with each
other in regards to FROPA, with deterministic guidance favoring an
earlier FROPA. Current mid- and long-range models have the front
moving into our northwestern counties by early Wednesday afternoon,
while the ensembles/clusters have the front moving through late
Wednesday into Thursday. We`ll keep an eye on this as temperatures
will be impacted.

As the region becomes influenced by the trough overhead, shortwave
disturbances rounding the base of the trough will provide the lift
necessary for scattered showers and storms to form along the front
as it moves southward Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time,
severe weather is not expected. However, inverted V and onion-shaped
sounding profiles will promote a threat for gusty winds. Additional
disturbances moving across the region will keep the unsettled
weather pattern going, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
possible through the weekend.

Regarding temperatures late this week and weekend, the passage of
the front and rain-cooled air will bring the return of below-normal
temperatures. Expect afternoon highs to only peak in the upper 80s
to mid 90s Thursday-Saturday, a welcome sight during the doldrums of
summer.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly flow around
15 kt. Intermittent wind gusts to 25 kt will be possible from
afternoon through late evening at all sites. No significant
aviation concerns are expected through Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78 100  80 101  80 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                76  99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  97  76  97  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              77 101  78 102  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77 100  78 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79 101  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  98  76  98  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  98  75  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  99  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74 102  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$