565
FXUS64 KFWD 151037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No changes are needed to the forecast through Tuesday. Hot and dry
conditions are expected with deep afternoon mixing resulting in
breezy winds at times. An assessment of changes/extension to the
current Heat Advisory for Tuesday will be made later today.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Tuesday/

Mid level ridging will continue to be centered over the Four
Corners region through Tuesday, but its eastern periphery will
extend well into the Southern Plains and North Texas resulting in
a continued slight upward trend in temperatures. While it will be
hot, a tightening gradient through the Plains will result in
increased southwesterly flow. While this often leads to warmer
temperatures, afternoon mixing is deep and with modest flow (~30
kt at 850 mb), we should see at least semi-breezy afternoon and
evening conditions. Dewpoints will likely fall into the low/mid
60s resulting in heat indices near or just slightly above ambient
air temperatures. That being said, temperatures will climb into
the upper 90s to near 102 today and likely a degree or two warmer
on Tuesday. While it will be hot, it shouldn`t be oppressive given
the breeze and lower humidity. At this time, no changes are
planned to the current Heat Advisory. No precipitation is expected
today or Tuesday across the region.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

Another hot and mostly sunny day is expected Wednesday ahead of a
weather pattern change that will bring increased rain chances and
slightly cooler temperatures toward the end of the work week.
Expect afternoon highs in the upper 90s to 102 degrees Wednesday
with peak heat index values 102 to 107 degree range.

A shortwave trough digging south across the Plains will send a
cold front toward North Texas late Wednesday into early Thursday.
This boundary will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm
development through Thursday and Friday as it gradually progresses
southward and mixes out over Central Texas. Current consensus is
for FROPA to reach our Red River counties late Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening reaching our southern counties late in the
day Thursday. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be highest
along/east of I-35 where lower mid-level heights and deeper
moisture are expected to overlap. Additionally, coverage will
likely reach its highest point each afternoon/evening during peak
heating in the vicinity of this frontal boundary. Most locations
will see a general 0.2-0.5" of rain through Friday with a 10%
chance for isolated totals greater than 1.5" east of I-35.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few more robust
storms could produce isolated severe wind gusts. Subtle mid-
level height rises may allow for mostly dry weather on Saturday
across the region. However, persistent troughing over the Plains
will keep unsettled weather in the forecast later in the weekend
with another round of more widespread rain chances looking more
probable in the Sunday- Monday timeframe.

Along with the increased rain chances, the late week cold front
will bring slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s expected Thursday and Friday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with southerly winds around 15 kt through the
period. Some intermittent gusts to 25 kt will be possible through
the afternoon into the late evening. No significant aviation
concerns are expected through Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  80 101  81 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                99  76 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               97  76  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
Denton             100  77 101  79 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney           100  77 101  80 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas             101  79 102  81 101 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             98  75  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           98  75  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              98  74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      102  75 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-145-146.

&&

$$