Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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768 FXUS64 KFWD 151749 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Tuesday/ Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of 100 degrees in most areas. The relatively minor piece of good news is that we`ll experience deep mixing on both afternoons, and this will allow relatively drier mid-level air to reach the surface, particularly west of I-35 and south of I-20. The net effect of this is that heat indices in and near these zones, while still hot, will not be too outrageous considering that ambient air temperatures will be over 100 degrees. The same can`t be said for our far eastern counties, however. Dewpoints in this region will hang tough in the 70s both afternoons, yielding indices in the 105-111 range. The Heat Advisory has been extended through Tuesday to account for these trends, incorporating the same geographic configuration as the one issued previously. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ Another hot and mostly sunny day is expected Wednesday ahead of a weather pattern change that will bring increased rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures toward the end of the work week. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 90s to 102 degrees Wednesday with peak heat index values 102 to 107 degree range. A shortwave trough digging south across the Plains will send a cold front toward North Texas late Wednesday into early Thursday. This boundary will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm development through Thursday and Friday as it gradually progresses southward and mixes out over Central Texas. Current consensus is for FROPA to reach our Red River counties late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening reaching our southern counties late in the day Thursday. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be highest along/east of I-35 where lower mid-level heights and deeper moisture are expected to overlap. Additionally, coverage will likely reach its highest point each afternoon/evening during peak heating in the vicinity of this frontal boundary. Most locations will see a general 0.2-0.5" of rain through Friday with a 10% chance for isolated totals greater than 1.5" east of I-35. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few more robust storms could produce isolated severe wind gusts. Subtle mid- level height rises may allow for mostly dry weather on Saturday across the region. However, persistent troughing over the Plains will keep unsettled weather in the forecast later in the weekend with another round of more widespread rain chances looking more probable in the Sunday- Monday timeframe. Along with the increased rain chances, the late week cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected Thursday and Friday. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions will persist through Tuesday afternoon, as a ridge of upper level high pressure continues to dominate the region. A southerly to southwesterly wind flow will continue this afternoon through Tuesday, with sustained wind speeds averaging 9-14 knots. Bradshaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 81 102 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 10 Waco 100 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 96 78 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 10 Denton 101 78 103 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 100 79 102 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dallas 101 80 103 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 97 76 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 98 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 97 73 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 101 76 103 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$