Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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961 FXUS64 KFWD 152317 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Very little pattern change expected over the next 24 hours with a cycle of hot days and warm nights continuing in response to the expanding mid level ridge over the Four Corners region. Adjustments have been made to dewpoints, a few to several degrees below the current NBM guidance, to account for the persistent deep vertical mixing that has been allowing dewpoints to mix out on these hot afternoons. This can mean the difference between heat index values reaching Heat Advisory criteria or not. Unfortunately, with triple digit temperatures becoming more widespread on Tuesday afternoon, portions of North and Central Texas will still reach the advisory threshold in spite of vigorous afternoon mixing. The current configuration of the advisory remains reasonable so there are no plans to expand this product at this time. 12 Previous Discussion: /This afternoon through Tuesday/ Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of 100 degrees in most areas. The relatively minor piece of good news is that we`ll experience deep mixing on both afternoons, and this will allow relatively drier mid-level air to reach the surface, particularly west of I-35 and south of I-20. The net effect of this is that heat indices in and near these zones, while still hot, will not be too outrageous considering that ambient air temperatures will be over 100 degrees. The same can`t be said for our far eastern counties, however. Dewpoints in this region will hang tough in the 70s both afternoons, yielding indices in the 105-111 range. The Heat Advisory has been extended through Tuesday to account for these trends, incorporating the same geographic configuration as the one issued previously. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ By Tuesday night, an upper level trough will be digging southward across the Midwest. This pattern shift will shunt the dominating upper ridge to our west and send a cold front south across the Plains. The front is progged to arrive in our northwestern counties late Wednesday morning/early afternoon and will slowly continue south throughout the day. High temperatures will still be able to peak in the 90s to just above 100, with heat indices ranging from 99 out west to 107 in the east. Lift from both the front itself and its associated mid-level disturbance will work with the available moisture to produce scattered showers and storms along the boundary as it advances southward. While the overall severe threat with this initial activity is low, inherent instability, a well-mixed low-level atmosphere (inverted V profiles), and steep DCAPE would promote a primary threat for strong to marginally severe wind gusts. We`ll keep an eye on this potential and adjust messaging as more high- resolution models begin to cover this period. The front will eventually wash out over south Central Texas on Thursday and provide a focusing point for additional convective development to end out the work week. Mid-level troughing will continue to dominate the weather pattern through early next week, keeping on and off rain chances going through at least the weekend. Coverage in showers and storms will increase by Sunday as 2+" PWATs begin to surge northward from the Gulf. Guidance is indicating at least a wetting rainfall (at least 0.25") across the region, with higher rainfall totals expected in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The post-frontal airmass and continued rain chances will keep temperatures below normal with morning lows in the 60s/70s and highs in the 80s/90s through Monday. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR flight conditions will prevail through the current TAF period with south winds generally below 15 knots and intermittent gusts to around 20 knots, especially in the afternoon and evening. No significant aviation concerns are expected through the next 30 hours. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 80 100 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 Waco 76 101 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 5 10 Paris 78 99 77 96 72 / 0 0 0 20 40 Denton 78 103 78 100 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 McKinney 79 102 79 99 73 / 0 0 0 10 30 Dallas 81 103 80 101 76 / 0 0 0 10 20 Terrell 77 100 77 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 20 Corsicana 77 101 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 74 101 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 76 104 77 99 73 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$