Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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172 FXUS64 KFWD 162021 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 321 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ /Through Wednesday Afternoon/ Another hot day is in store for all of North and Central Texas, with afternoon highs today ranging from the mid and upper 90s to low 100s. Heat indices will be slightly lower today, but a few locations will still meet Heat Advisory criteria. This heat product will remain in effect through 8 PM this evening, with no changes expected with this forecast update. Otherwise, generally sunny skies will prevail through the day with southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 mph. Dew points should mix into the mid 50s for points west of I-35, while points east remain in the upper 60s. A rare summertime pattern change lingers on the horizon, which is thanks to an amplifying trough over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. This will also help to push the mid level ridge further west, decreasing its influence across North and Central Texas. This will lead to cooler Canadian air actually making its way south. A cold front at the leading edge of this air mass will start to sweep south across Oklahoma, eventually making it through portions of North Texas by Wednesday afternoon. While it will still be hot on Wednesday, ambient temperatures will be several degrees cooler than previous days. Highs are expected to reach into the mid to upper 90s, although heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria. Therefore, no extension will be necessary and the current heat product will be allowed to expire. The cold front will increase our rain chances through Wednesday afternoon and evening, which will also be the best opportunity for rain that we`ve had in a while. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely spread across the region along the leading edge of the front. While severe weather is not expected, some storms could be strong with marginally severe winds. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night through Next Week/ Showers and storms will continue to push south into Central Texas Wednesday evening, eventually dissipating Wednesday night with the loss of diurnal instability. The cold front partially responsible for the convection will stall somewhere across the CWA, likely across Central Texas, providing focus for additional development Thursday morning as a trailing shortwave passes overhead. Morning convection should push south of the area Thursday afternoon as the front sags farther south and east, and precipitation will most likely remain south and east of the region for the rest of the day. Weak flow aloft will preclude a severe weather threat for the most part, though good instability will support a few strong storms, and perhaps an isolated severe storm or two with damaging downburst winds. A lull in rain chances is expected on Friday as convection remains focused across South Central and Southeast Texas along the front, though low POPs will be kept across Central Texas where isolated storms may still occur. The boundary will lift north through Central and North Texas on Saturday as the next shortwave trough drops south through the Plains. Widespread convective development appears likely across Northwest Texas and Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening as the shortwave continues dropping south, with activity again focused along the front. The boundary will reverse course again, returning south as a cold front along with the associated convection Saturday night and Sunday, bringing good rain chances for the latter half of the weekend. The slow movement of the shortwave and the presence of the surface front will provide additional storm chances for Monday and possibly into Tuesday of next week. Clouds, precipitation, and slightly cooler air behind the front will also ensure below-normal temperatures during the Sunday through next Tuesday period. Mid range guidance indicates that weak troughing will linger overhead during the days 7 through 10 period, which points to seasonable temperatures and at least slight chance POPs for the middle and latter part of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns...Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday Afternoon/Evening. VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Southwesterly winds will continue at around 5 to 10 knots, with gusts upwards of 20 knots. Other than a few passing cirrus and some generic cumulus, conditions will be fair with no impacts. A cold front will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, along which isolated to scattered showers and storms could develop. This may have a direct impact on the TAF sites, which prompts me to include a line for VCTS around 21z. Winds will turn north at around 5 to 10 knots as this front passes through, with occasionally higher gusts possible as outflow boundaries spread out across North and Central Texas. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 76 93 74 / 0 30 30 30 10 Waco 77 99 75 95 73 / 0 20 30 50 20 Paris 77 95 72 88 69 / 0 30 30 40 10 Denton 80 99 73 94 71 / 5 30 30 20 10 McKinney 80 98 73 92 71 / 0 30 30 30 10 Dallas 82 100 76 94 74 / 0 30 30 30 10 Terrell 77 97 73 92 71 / 0 30 30 40 20 Corsicana 77 99 76 94 74 / 0 20 30 50 30 Temple 75 98 75 96 71 / 0 10 20 50 20 Mineral Wells 77 99 73 94 70 / 0 30 30 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-145-146. && $$