238
FXUS64 KFWD 171817
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

Quite the active day is in store for most of North and Central
Texas, which started off with a relatively calm morning. Earlier
today, a remnant outflow boundary started to push through portions
of North Texas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
along this boundary across the Metroplex, which will continue
heading south ahead of a rather ill-defined cold front.

Ahead of this front, temperatures will still be quick to rise,
leading to another hot summer afternoon across much of our area.
Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s, with a few
locations along the Red River staying in the low 90s. Areas under
increased cloud cover that have already seen rain have remained a
bit cooler. The aforementioned cold front will push through North
Texas right around peak heating, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Increasing rain
chances will spread south with the progression of the cold front,
eventually making its way through Central Texas later this
evening. Overall, the severe weather threat remains low. That
being said, we can`t rule out a few stronger storms where gusty
winds and lightning will be the main hazards. The most glaring
limitation is the lack of shear, which should result in mostly
beneficial rainfall for folks in the area.

Confidence in the forecast decreases later this evening and
tonight once the cold front pushes into Central Texas. Some of the
hi-res model guidance has the front stalling out, while others
are slower with the initial progression of the front. This could
potentially lead to lingering thunderstorm chances across Central
and East Texas through Thursday. This is important to note as this
may have implications on a possible flooding threat across our
southern and eastern counties, depending on storm evolution.

Speaking of which, a conditional threat for heavy rainfall and
potential flooding issues remains possible. Confidence on exact
timing and area of impact remains a bit low, so for now we will
hold on on issuing any flood products. There is a medium chance
for flash flooding across our eastern zones where a bulls-eye
50-70% chance of at least 3 inches or more of rainfall exists for
points east of the Metroplex into East Texas. This potential will
linger through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning,
with rain chances continuing across Central Texas through the
afternoon hours once again.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 405 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/
/Friday Through Next Week/

Unsettled weather will prevail this weekend and throughout the
upcoming week. During this period, North and Central Texas will
transition from a northerly flow regime to upper troughing, two
unseasonal patterns that will maintain below normal temperatures
and above normal rain chances.

A low-level circulation associated with an aging frontal boundary
will likely be over Southeast Texas on Friday. Its proximity will
keep daytime showers and storms in the forecast for our Central
and East Texas counties. But compared to Thursday, much more
abundant sunshine should allow most areas to reach the 90s, even
mid 90s across the Big Country.

Although daytime temperatures will still be below normal across
much of the region, Saturday may be the warmest day of the bunch
with sunshine dominating once again. However, a shortwave
embedded in northerly flow aloft may introduce some afternoon
convection, particularly across western portions of North Texas.

By Sunday, our northerly flow regime will give way to pronounced
troughing in the Central Plains. This will mean an unseasonally
cloudy period with daily rain chances. The rain chances (and
rainfall amounts) will peak Sunday and Monday but will continue
through the upcoming week. With considerable cloud cover and
well-timed rainfall, some locations will see high temperatures
only in the 80s. The convection should remain rather disorganized
with little concern for severe weather. But with precipitable
water values soaring to near maximum values for July, heavy
rainfall will likely accompany the activity. For many areas,
precipitation deficits this summer should preclude flooding
issues, but the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of rain may
eventually introduce some flooding concerns.

.CLIMATE...

DFW Airport reached 101 degrees on Tuesday, the 8th triple-digit
day this year. This tally is ahead of the 30-year normal for the
year to date, which is 5 days.

However, Waco and Killeen are behind schedule. For both, the
year-to-date normal is 6 days. Waco has only had 3 triple-digit
highs so far this year while Killeen recorded its 5th of the year
on Tuesday.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Thunderstorm Potential Through Tomorrow Morning.

VFR conditions should mostly prevail outside of any convection
through the TAF period. Winds may be a bit all over the place as
convective boundaries and an approaching front gradually sweep
through North and Central Texas, but should mostly remain light
from the north once the cold front pushes through this afternoon.
Timing for convection remains reasonable with no changes
necessary. It is possible that some lingering convection will
continue through the morning on Thursday and will be worth
watching for any changes in future TAF issuances.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  74  90  74  92 /  40  50  40   5  10
Waco                97  74  92  72  93 /  20  40  60  20  30
Paris               92  72  84  69  88 /  50  70  40   5   5
Denton              96  72  91  70  93 /  40  50  30   5  10
McKinney            95  73  88  71  91 /  50  60  40   5  10
Dallas              97  75  91  74  93 /  40  50  40  10  10
Terrell             95  73  88  71  90 /  40  60  50  10  10
Corsicana           97  74  89  73  91 /  30  50  60  20  20
Temple              97  74  93  71  93 /  10  40  50  20  30
Mineral Wells       97  71  93  71  93 /  30  30  30   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$