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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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899 FXUS64 KFWD 172308 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 608 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday Evening/ The line of storms which initiated along an earlier outflow boundary will continue to push southeast and away from North and Central Texas, though a trailing area of stratiform precipitation east of the Metroplex may persist for another hour. A second boundary which pushed south of the I-20 corridor provided focus for additional development a bit farther west, hopefully bringing rain to areas which badly need it. Those storms have since generated a third outflow boundary which will need to be watched for isolated thunderstorm development as it approaches I-35W from the west. Meanwhile, a shortwave dropping south within a north flow regime will help drag a cold front through the region tonight. The front itself will be another focus for convection overnight into Thursday morning, with Central and East Texas again having the better rain chances where the stronger forcing and highest moisture content will be. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will exit to the south and east during the day Thursday as the front pushes south into South Central and Southeast Texas. However, a lingering upper trough near the Texas/Louisiana border will likely generate isolated thunderstorms east of the I-35 corridor Thursday afternoon, which will dissipate Thursday evening with the loss of instability. Severe weather is unlikely during the course of the event given the 20 kt of effective shear, but enough instability exists to support gusty winds up to 50 MPH and small hail. A storm or two may still overachieve and produce damaging winds, similar to the Kaufman County storm this afternoon which knocked down dozens of power poles. Heavy rain may also cause flooding on a local scale due to slow storm motions. Those who received rain today have also experienced a nice break from the heat. The passage of the front will cool things down a bit area-wide for Thursday, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s in the east to the lower and mid 90s in the west. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024/ /Thursday Night Onward/ North and Central Texas will continue to be situated between a longwave ridge to the west and a longwave trough to the east. This mid-level pattern will keep northerly flow aloft in place and persist with on and off rain chances through the end of the week as impulses move around the base of the trough. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday afternoon across Central Texas, closer to the axis of higher moisture and lift. We`ll see an overall lull in precipitation over most of Saturday in between the movement of small disturbances, though low chances for isolated storms are possible Saturday afternoon for portions of the Big Country and eastern Central Texas as one of those disturbances moves overhead. More sunshine and the aforementioned drier conditions will allow Saturday afternoon temperatures to peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s, the warmest day for the rest of the forecast period. By the end of the weekend, a shortwave will dig south as it moves along the periphery of the main longwave trough. The ridge will be pushed even further west and the region will be enveloped within the influence of the trough. Located just upstream of the trough base, North and Central Texas will continue to observe unsettled weather throughout the rest of the long term forecast period. In response, on and off showers and storms will gradually increase in coverage as we go into the first days of next week. Additionally, PWATs will also surge to near 2" across the region. Best chances for precipitation will once again be located across Central and East Texas where the best moisture will be found. Most likely total precipitation at any one place between Sunday and Wednesday is 0.5-1.5" with isolated higher amounts of 1.5"-3". While our recent dry spell has allowed soils to dry from our fairly wet spring season, multiple rounds of showers over the next 7 days with some capable of heavy rain will bring back a concern for flooding. This will be especially true for those areas that see higher-end totals. Switching over temperatures, the on and off rain chances and persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler than normal for this time of year. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s from Sunday through midweek of next week. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Thunderstorms along a pair of southward-pushing outflow boundaries should continue to move south and away from the DFW Metroplex, but may occasionally impact KACT over the next hour or two. A third such boundary is approaching the DFW area from the west, and may kick off an isolated storm or two before instability wanes, but probabilities are too low to include in any of the TAFs at this time. Isolated thunderstorms may redevelop late this evening (03Z-06Z in the Metroplex, 06Z-09Z at KACT) as a weak cold front pushes through the area. Activity should exit to the south of all TAF sites by 12Z Thursday. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 92 73 91 73 / 30 20 10 10 0 Waco 74 94 72 92 71 / 40 20 20 20 5 Paris 72 84 69 86 67 / 60 40 10 5 0 Denton 72 93 69 92 69 / 30 10 5 10 0 McKinney 72 90 70 91 69 / 30 20 10 5 0 Dallas 74 92 73 91 72 / 30 20 10 10 0 Terrell 73 89 70 89 69 / 50 30 20 10 0 Corsicana 74 92 73 91 71 / 50 30 20 20 5 Temple 74 95 71 93 70 / 40 30 20 20 5 Mineral Wells 71 94 69 93 69 / 20 5 5 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$