500
FXUS64 KFWD 181041
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Only minor changes were made to the forecast for the rest of the
day. PoPs were increased across our Central TX counties through
this morning as thunderstorms continue along a weak frontal
boundary. These should push into the Hill Country over the next
couple of hours. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
will be the main threats.

Later today, we`ll continue to watch areas from the Metroplex
eastward for additional isolated storms as a mid level shortwave
will continue to provide some weak ascent into the afternoon
hours. Deeper moisture will gradually get pushed farther into East
Texas and Louisiana by evening with additional rain chances around
20%.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Friday/

Convection has generally been on the decrease through the late
evening, but over the last hour we`ve seen an uptick in coverage
across our eastern counties, and this trend looks like it will
continue at least for a few hours. Surface features are a little
messy at this time with light winds and only weak temperature and
moisture gradients which makes it a little difficult to pin down
exactly where the frontal boundary is located. Based on the
latest observations, it looks like it`s across the northern parts
of the Hill Country and then stretching back northward into the
Arklatex. This broad area of low level convergence is where much
of the ongoing convective activity is located. A slow southward
progression is expected through the rest of the night with rain
chances highest east of I-35 and across our far eastern counties.
Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threat given
the deep moisture content, and slow storm motions will likely
exacerbate this potential through the overnight.

On Thursday, the frontal boundary will continue to push farther
south with some drier air spilling into our northwest counties.
Most areas should remain precipitation free although we`ll still
have some 20-30% PoPs across our far eastern counties and some
late afternoon 20% PoPs back farther west into the I-35 corridor
to account for any isolated storms during peak heating. Otherwise,
a light north wind and temperatures in the lower 90s can be
expected. Friday should feature mainly dry conditions with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/

Late in the week, a shortwave will transition into a closed upper
low over the Upper Midwest. This feature will backbuild to the
southwest during the weekend, sending spokes of energy into North
Texas early next week. The resulting troughing over the Lone Star
State will persist much of the upcoming week, resulting in
considerable cloudiness and daily rain chances.

Aided by northerly flow aloft, another cold front will invade the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Saturday. This will
organize our surface wind field back to seasonal southerly winds,
eroding what`s left of the aging frontal boundary to our south.
The new front will remain to our northwest, and although some sea
breeze showers and storms may enter our far southeast during the
afternoon, Saturday should be otherwise mostly sunny and rain-
free. This will likely be the warmest day since before this
week`s pattern shift, but with temperatures peaking from near 90F
in East Texas to the mid 90s along and west of the I-35 corridor,
highs will still be near or below normal for late July.

The first in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday with
scattered convection increasing in areal coverage into the
afternoon hours. Sunday will be cloudier than Saturday with
lightning and gusty winds potentially disrupting outdoor plans.
The aforementioned front may attempt to invade North Texas, but
without adequate convection to enhance its motion with outflow,
it may make little progress. But as a subsequent impulse arrives
on Monday, the front will likely push deep into North Texas,
serving as a focus for another round of showers and storms. Monday
may be the wettest day of the bunch as pooling moisture enhances
precipitation efficiency.

The unsettled pattern will linger throughout the upcoming week,
with additional rounds of rainfall each day. Rain/cloud-reduced
instability and generally weak shear should preclude severe
weather, but with each successive bout of heavy rainfall, flooding
concerns will increase. With minimal rainfall since May, much of
North Texas has developed considerable soil moisture deficits,
which will initially reduce runoff. However, there has already
been substantial rainfall with our current frontal intrusion,
particularly across East Texas where flooding issues may arise
first.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with additional convective
chances at 20% or less through the afternoon. North winds around
10 kt will gradually become more easterly through the evening. At
Waco, thunderstorms have moved south of the airport and VFR should
prevail through the period.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  72  93  73  93 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                94  72  93  70  95 /  20   5   5   0   5
Paris               86  68  88  66  89 /  30   5   0   0   0
Denton              94  69  93  69  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  69  92  69  93 /  20   5   0   0   0
Dallas              93  74  93  73  95 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             88  70  90  68  92 /  20   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           91  72  92  70  94 /  20   5   5   0   5
Temple              94  70  93  70  95 /  50   5   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  69  93  69  94 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$