Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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876 FXUS64 KFWD 182012 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 312 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 141 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ The weak summertime cold front that pushed through all of North and Central Texas has now washed out near the Texas coast. Light northerly winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon before becoming more easterly this evening. That, along with some residual cloud cover and afternoon showers and storms, will keep us cool once again, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. A surface low associated with a mid-level shortwave will continue pushing off to our southeast, which is serving as a focus point for isolated convection across portions of North Texas and Central Texas through the evening. The best potential will be east of I-35, although the better moisture remains across East Texas and into Louisiana. Because of this, there is a little bit of uncertainty in the overall extent of coverage of convection. Regardless, the probability is high enough to keep broad brushed PoPs around 20% across the area in question. Otherwise, a much quieter period can be expected. Any additional thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening should remain sub-severe, and residual convection from the surface low or any outflow boundaries should quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Clearing skies and light northeasterly to easterly winds will allow for a pleasant and mild night, with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s - a wonderful treat for a mid-July morning. Mostly quiet conditions will continue into Friday, with below normal temperatures once again and very low storm chances across our extreme southeastern counties. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/ A temporary return to uncomfortably hot weather will occur on Saturday as the front currently draped across South Central and Southeast Texas lifts north as a warm front. Highs in the mid 90s with dewpoints approaching 70 will create max heat index values near 100 for several locations. Fortunately, conditions will likely not reach heat advisory criteria. The next round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas Saturday afternoon as an exceptionally slow moving upper trough eases south through the Central and Southern Plains. Convection will likely initialize along the aforementioned surface front and will push southeast into North Texas Saturday night. The front will return southeast as a "cold" front along with the scattered showers and storms, before stalling stalling somewhere across the forecast area on Sunday. A couple of shortwaves will round the southern flank of the parent trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, with activity focused along the front or any outflow boundaries resulting from previous convection. The location of the highest rain chances will depend on the position of the front and mesoscale boundaries, which is uncertain at this juncture, so will include chance POPs area-wide both Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is unlikely either day, but instability will be high enough to support some strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. By Tuesday, the front will have shifted south to near the southern CWA boundary while the upper trough expands southwest across the region. This pattern will remain in place through the end of next week. The National Blended Model hasn`t quite caught up to this scenario and is generating widespread high POPs across most of the region for the Tuesday through next Thursday period. This may be true for the Central Texas counties, but POPs will decrease substantially the farther north and away from the surface front you go. Will maintain sight chance POPs along the Red River, chance across most of the region, with some likely POPs across the southern-most counties. With this expected pattern in place, we will need to keep an eye on the flood potential across mainly Central Texas next week where multiple rounds of rain, some heavy, are looking like a good possibility. Whatever the case, rain, clouds, and the passage of the front will bring pleasant temperatures by July standards in Texas. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 141 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns...Isolated Convection Possible This Afternoon/Evening. VFR conditions will generally prevail for all TAF sites through the period. Light north winds upwards of 10 knots will continue through the rest of the day before becoming more easterly this evening. Any outflow boundaries could occasionally lead to gustier winds upwards of 25 to 30 knots but should be short-lived. VCTS was added to the TAFs around 18-19z and should continue through the early evening, ending around 00z. There could be some additional development after, but all activity should quickly wind down with the loss of daytime heating after sunset tonight. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 93 73 95 76 / 5 0 0 0 20 Waco 73 93 71 96 75 / 5 5 0 5 5 Paris 68 88 66 91 69 / 10 0 0 0 10 Denton 70 94 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 5 20 McKinney 70 92 69 94 73 / 5 0 0 0 20 Dallas 74 93 73 96 76 / 5 0 0 0 20 Terrell 71 90 69 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 73 92 71 95 75 / 10 5 0 5 5 Temple 71 94 71 97 75 / 5 5 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 69 94 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$