Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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992 FXUS64 KFWD 190002 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 702 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ Northwesterly flow aloft continues across North and Central Texas, shifting the shortwave that was atop our region this morning farther to the southeast. In it`s wake, much calmer conditions are expected as any afternoon showers should come to an end by sunset. With northerly winds in place through tomorrow evening, tomorrow afternoon`s temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. Most locations will top out in the lower to mid 90s. Precipitation chances will remain well away from North and Central Texas, leaving behind mostly sunny skies. Enjoy the start of the weekend as conditions will be changing the latter half of the weekend. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/ A temporary return to uncomfortably hot weather will occur on Saturday as the front currently draped across South Central and Southeast Texas lifts north as a warm front. Highs in the mid 90s with dewpoints approaching 70 will create max heat index values near 100 for several locations. Fortunately, conditions will likely not reach heat advisory criteria. The next round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas Saturday afternoon as an exceptionally slow moving upper trough eases south through the Central and Southern Plains. Convection will likely initialize along the aforementioned surface front and will push southeast into North Texas Saturday night. The front will return southeast as a "cold" front along with the scattered showers and storms, before stalling stalling somewhere across the forecast area on Sunday. A couple of shortwaves will round the southern flank of the parent trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, with activity focused along the front or any outflow boundaries resulting from previous convection. The location of the highest rain chances will depend on the position of the front and mesoscale boundaries, which is uncertain at this juncture, so will include chance POPs area-wide both Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is unlikely either day, but instability will be high enough to support some strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. By Tuesday, the front will have shifted south to near the southern CWA boundary while the upper trough expands southwest across the region. This pattern will remain in place through the end of next week. The National Blended Model hasn`t quite caught up to this scenario and is generating widespread high POPs across most of the region for the Tuesday through next Thursday period. This may be true for the Central Texas counties, but POPs will decrease substantially the farther north and away from the surface front you go. Will maintain sight chance POPs along the Red River, chance across most of the region, with some likely POPs across the southern-most counties. With this expected pattern in place, we will need to keep an eye on the flood potential across mainly Central Texas next week where multiple rounds of rain, some heavy, are looking like a good possibility. Whatever the case, rain, clouds, and the passage of the front will bring pleasant temperatures by July standards in Texas. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A few pop-up showers may develop within the D10 airspace through the next hour or two. However, the chances of any precipitation at any TAF site is too low to include in the forecast. Any shower activity is expected to quickly diminish after sunset, leaving behind dry and VFR conditions through tomorrow. Northerly winds will persist tonight, remaining below 10 knots. Winds will gradually become easterly tomorrow afternoon and evening, thus, this wind shift has been included in the KDFW extended TAF. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 93 73 95 76 / 5 0 0 0 20 Waco 73 92 71 96 75 / 5 0 0 5 5 Paris 69 88 66 91 69 / 10 0 0 0 10 Denton 70 92 69 94 72 / 5 0 0 5 20 McKinney 71 91 69 94 73 / 5 0 0 0 20 Dallas 74 93 73 96 76 / 5 0 0 0 20 Terrell 71 89 69 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 73 90 71 95 75 / 5 5 0 5 5 Temple 72 92 71 97 75 / 5 5 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 70 92 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$