221
FXUS64 KFWD 192358
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made to the previous forecast with tranquil
weather conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Minor
adjustments were made to tomorrow afternoon`s precipitation
probabilities, adjusting them from 10% to 20% north and west of
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. A growing number of high-
resolution guidance suggests an outflow boundary will be
approaching our northwestern counties by sunrise Saturday and
stalling before reaching the I-20 and I-35 corridors. The boundary
will provide just enough focus for a few diurnally driven
thunderstorms. Given the low-level dry air in place and hot
afternoon temperatures, inverted-V soundings will be present
throughout the afternoon. This could lead to a few strong storms,
mainly capable of gusty downburst winds. Storm chances will
temporarily diminish after sunset before additional rain chances
arrive closer to sunrise Sunday.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Mostly sunny and warm conditions will prevail through the rest of
the afternoon as weak high pressure settles into the Arklatex.
Light northeast winds will become a little more easterly this
afternoon with scattered fair weather cumulus. Highs today should
top out in the lower 90s.

Northwest flow will prevail through the Plains tonight into
Saturday and should send at least one shortwave southward
toward North Texas through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should be ongoing mainly off to our northwest late
tonight. This activity may clip our far northwest counties late
overnight or early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, we`ll have to see
if any remnant outflow boundaries spread south into our area which
may serve as a focus for isolated convective development on
Saturday. PoPs will generally remain less than 10% in most areas.

Slightly better rain chances may arrive late Saturday night as
another shortwave pivots through the Plains. An area of focused
low level warm advection should develop across southwest Oklahoma
and should provide support for developing convection during this
time. Some of this activity will likely spread into our northwest
counties after midnight. Rain chances will increase further headed
into Sunday and early next week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, with
below average temperatures and daily rain chances Sunday through
the end of next week. Rain/storm chances will be the most
widespread on Monday and will be accompanied by a threat for heavy
rainfall and flooding. Ensure you monitor the forecast over the
next few days for the latest information.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Next Week/

A strongly amplified ridge will remain across the West with a
Bermuda high anchored off the East Coast. In between, negative
height anomalies will prevail, maintaining an unsettled period for
Texas with below normal temperatures and persistent rain chances.
Despite how unusual this is for July, guidance is in fairly good
agreement with the evolution of this troughing.

Early in the week, the trough will attempt to backbuild to the
southwest, sending spokes of energy into North Texas. The first
in a series of impulses will arrive on Sunday, initially enhancing
convection along a frontal boundary to our northwest. Scattered
showers and storms will steadily increase in areal coverage across
the region into the afternoon hours. As a result, Sunday will be
noticeably cloudier than Saturday with lightning and gusty winds
potentially disrupting outdoor plans.

As a subsequent impulse arrives on Monday, the front will likely
push deeper into North Texas, particularly if aided by outflow.
Pooling moisture will push precipitable water values near maximum
amounts for July, most notably across Central and East Texas
where the heavy rain threat will also be maximized. Slow-moving
efficient rain producers may introduce flooding concerns,
especially in areas that have already experienced significant
rainfall during preceding days. Monday`s high temperatures will
generally be in the 80s, but daytime values may linger in the 70s
if the precipitation is persistent enough. Highs in the 70s are
rare during July and typically require considerable rainfall.
Neither DFW nor Waco has seen a July day below 80F since 2014.
(Killeen had a rainy day with a high of 79F in July 2021.)

While Monday may be the wettest day of the bunch, extraordinary
precipitable water values will linger the remainder of the week,
with additional impulses providing daily rain chances. The
cumulative impact of the rainfall will maintain the flood threat.
The frontal boundary will no longer be in play on subsequent days,
but the surface wind field should be weak enough to allow outflow
boundaries to linger, serving as focal points for renewed
development. The locations of these mesoscale features can`t be
pinpointed at this time scale, and the forecast for the middle of
next week will focus the highest PoPs and heaviest rainfall
amounts across Central and East Texas where the deepest moisture
will reside.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and light northeasterly winds continue at all TAF sites
across North and Central Texas. A few afternoon cumulus clouds
remain, however, they are expected to dissipate closer to sunset.
Tonight, expect southeasterly winds to return with continued VFR
conditions.

A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow, mainly
northwest of the D10 airspace. No direct thunderstorm impacts are
expected within to any North/Central Texas TAF sites. Winds will
continue out of the southeast with additional cumulus clouds
developing in the afternoon.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  95  76  92  74 /   0   5  10  40  50
Waco                70  96  74  94  73 /   0   0   0  30  30
Paris               66  91  70  88  70 /   0   0   5  30  50
Denton              70  95  73  92  71 /   0   5  20  40  60
McKinney            69  93  73  92  72 /   0   0  10  40  60
Dallas              72  95  76  92  74 /   0   0  10  40  50
Terrell             68  92  72  91  72 /   0   0   5  30  50
Corsicana           70  93  75  93  74 /   0   0   0  30  40
Temple              70  95  73  94  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
Mineral Wells       69  95  72  93  70 /   0  10  20  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$