016
FXUS64 KFWD 070011
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
711 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Diurnally-driven convection in the vicinity of a stalled frontal
boundary through Central Texas will continue to wane with loss of
heating this evening, with a tranquil overnight period expected.
Another round of scattered convection is possible tomorrow
afternoon, and this would be most likely to affect areas east of
I-35 and south of I-20. Later tomorrow evening, a convective
complex will move southeastward out of Oklahoma and into North
Texas, and may be capable of localized hail/wind threats. PoPs
have been increased roughly along and north of the Highway 380
corridor based on decent agreement among recent high-res
guidance. Otherwise, the focus remains on the approaching tropical
system which will arrive during the first half of the week. Flood
headlines will likely be coordinated in upcoming forecast
issuances.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions prevail across North Texas at
this hour behind yesterday`s cold front. The old boundary is
draped across Central TX this morning and lower 70s dewpoints have
already crept back into our southeast counties. While synoptic
lift is generally weak across the Southern Plains this afternoon,
heating along a broadly convergent zone in Central TX should lead
to some scattered thunderstorms. This activity would mainly be
across our far southern and southeastern counties and diminish in
coverage this evening with loss of heating.

Southerly flow will return to North Texas tonight and begin to
pull moisture northward making it feel a little more humid.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer as well with
temperatures in the mid 70s expected.

On Sunday, North and Central TX will be between an approaching
cold front off to the north and Tropical Storm Beryl which will be
making a run at the TX coastline. This will lead to relatively
quiet conditions, although we will warm back into the mid 90s with
increasing humidity. Heat indices will again climb back above 100
degrees for most locations. By Sunday night, thunderstorms are
expected to erupt along the cold front across parts of Oklahoma
and will likely move across the Red River late overnight. Areas
north of I-20 will have the best chance for thunderstorms and some
locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will continue through the
middle of the week with influence from the tropical system. More
details on that below...

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/
/Monday through Next Week/

Bottom Line: Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding
associated with TS Beryl (anticipated to make landfall as a
hurricane along the TX Coast) will impact portions of North &
Central Texas through early next week.

* Most Likely Rainfall Amounts:
* West of I-35: Up to 1"
* East of I-35: 2 - 6" (highest totals SE)

* Isolated (10% Coverage) Amounts:
* West of I-35: 1 - 3"
* East of I-35: 6 - 10" (highest totals SE)

* Greatest Flood Threat Timing: Late Mon. Evening - Midday Tues.

Discussion: No significant adjustments have been made to the
forecast since the overnight update. Confidence is increasing
that periods of heavy rain will impact the region as Beryl moves
inland, resulting in an increased threat for flash flooding.

Beryl is forecast to make landfall Monday morning near the Middle
TX coast, before shifting north and weakening to a Tropical
Depression as it reaches Central Texas. The southernmost counties
in the Brazos Valley will start to see showers and storms ahead of
the main core of the system around mid-morning Monday, with
coverage expanding northward through the day. Most guidance has a
tight gradient of rainfall, with a narrow corridor of the highest
totals confined to the southeasternmost counties of the forecast
area. However, we`ll have to monitor the potential for dry air
entraining into the system, which would result in a less confined
area of precipitation and allow for heavier rainfall to expand
further north and west, impacting areas near the I-20 corridor.
This would result in a sharp drop-off of rain totals further to
the south and west near the Big Country. For the DFW Metroplex,
conditions will be feast vs famine when it comes to rainfall
totals. The further east, the better chances of totals near the
1.5" to 3" range, however areas only a handful of miles to the
west may receive next to nothing. We`ll also have to closely
monitor the threat for tornadoes late Monday and into Tuesday as
the system moves inland.

Rain chances taper off by Tuesday evening as the system shifts
out of the area and phases with an upper level trough heading for
the Great Lakes. The unsettled pattern sticks around through the
end of the week with daily storm chances through Friday. Highs
mostly in the 80s Monday and Tuesday will gradually warm into mid
90s generally by Thursday.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southeasterly surface
winds. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southern
portions of Central Texas as of 00z, but will wane with loss of
heating prior to encroaching on the Waco TAF site. Additional
scattered convection should redevelop tomorrow afternoon in parts
of Central and East Texas, but is expected to remain displaced
from the TAF sites at this time. A convective complex is likely
to move southeastward from Oklahoma later tomorrow evening which
may impact D10 airports, and this may need to be introduced as it
enters the valid forecast period in subsequent TAFs.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  75  89  72 /   0   5  40  50  30
Waco                74  96  75  87  71 /  10  30  20  50  40
Paris               71  94  72  88  69 /   0  10  30  60  40
Denton              74  97  72  89  71 /   0   5  50  60  30
McKinney            74  95  73  89  71 /   0  10  50  60  40
Dallas              77  97  75  90  72 /   0  10  40  60  40
Terrell             73  95  74  88  71 /   0  30  30  60  50
Corsicana           75  97  76  89  73 /   5  30  30  60  60
Temple              73  96  75  86  72 /  20  30  10  50  40
Mineral Wells       72  97  71  89  69 /   0   0  40  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$