Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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284 FXUS64 KFWD 011045 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The previous forecast remains on track with what will likely be another record highest minimum temperatures this morning. The previous record was 80 degrees at both DFW and Waco airport. Above normal temperatures are expected once again today with widespread triple digit heat. There will be a low chance for isolated showers or storms across East Texas. Any precipitation that develops will come to an end around sunset. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Trough Tuesday/ Not much change to our sensible weather is expected today compared to this past weekend as we remain under a strong ridge overhead. Warm and muggy conditions will persist through Tuesday with the Heat Advisory continuing throughout much of the region. The exception is across western portions of Central Texas, where a bit more afternoon mixing will keep heat index values below 105 degrees, therefore, no heat headlines are in place. The rest of the region will continue to see heat index values between 105 to 110 with light southerly/southwesterly winds persisting. There will be a weak shortwave that will traverse from north to south along the Texas/Louisiana border, likely leading to a few showers and storms across East Texas. Overall, the probability of any afternoon precipitation will remain limited to 20% across our far eastern counties. Rain chances will diminish after sunset, leaving behind hot and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/ /Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/ Triple digit heat will continue through the July 4th holiday with heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday. Heat headlines will continue through mid to late week for most (if not all) of the region. Fortunately, some relief from the triple digit temperatures will arrive later in the week. A weak cold front will slide into the region on Friday as an upper level trough moves into the Plains. Low rain chances will return Thursday night and continue through Saturday as the front serves as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. High temperatures will also drop into the 90s behind the front through the weekend, bringing a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures. There is good consensus among ensemble guidance that the ridge will remain over the western CONUS as we head into next week. This may keep us in an unusually active pattern for mid July, with additional chances for showers and storms. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds are ongoing at this time with a gradual transition to southwesterly winds later this morning. Wind speeds will remain light, generally below 10 knots. No significant weather impacts are expected at any of the North and Central Texas TAF sites. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 102 82 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 78 101 79 99 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 95 78 98 79 98 / 20 5 5 0 0 Denton 101 79 103 80 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 99 80 101 81 100 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 82 102 83 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 78 99 79 98 / 10 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 100 80 101 79 100 / 10 5 5 0 0 Temple 99 78 101 77 99 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 78 103 79 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$