Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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875 FXUS64 KFWD 051748 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of North Texas this afternoon as an outflow boundary pushes south of the I-20 corridor. This activity is expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon mainly along and just north of this boundary. Latest RAP objective analysis indicates moderate instability with MLCAPE >2000 J/kg throughout much of our Central TX counties which will support locally robust updrafts. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms could produce some gusty winds. Farther north, widespread rainfall continues across northwest Texas closer to the actual cold frontal boundary where weak synoptic ascent is also present thanks to a subtle mid level shortwave. For the remainder of the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will continue with the highest chances from the Metroplex south and west. PW values near 2 inches and generally weak wind fields suggest that locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. Activity should start to diminish in coverage later this evening with loss of heating. We`ll maintain some low PoPs through the overnight hours given the proximity of the surface boundaries and generally moist airmass in place. On Saturday, the frontal boundary should sag southward into Central TX where a re-invigoration of convection should occur through the early afternoon as we heat up and destabilize. We`ll show increasing PoPs into the afternoon with coverage 40-50%. High temperatures should be held in check by continued cloud cover and rain chances with highs topping out in the lower 90s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ Update: The forecast trends discussed below remain on track with no notable departures from the anticipated pattern in the evening guidance. All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and into early next week as Hurricane Beryl moves around the southern and western periphery of the weakening ridge over the Southeast. Though uncertainty continues in the forecast track, strength and speed of Beryl, we are beginning to see a moderate uptick in cumulative rainfall estimates for next week. In general, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected through Thursday night with lesser amounts west of Highway 281. There is currently about a 10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches across portions of Central Texas. These amounts have been and will likely continue to trend higher in response to inland track adjustments over the next few days. 12 Previous Discussion: /Saturday Through Next Week/ After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also see impacts from a tropical system. The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The more organized convection will be associated with the frontal boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale, guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally mild/wet pattern. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Outside of convection, VFR will prevail with north-northeast winds 10 to 15 kt through tonight. At this hour, an outflow boundary is pushing south through the D10 airspace with scattered thunderstorms developing along and north of the boundary. We`ll start the TAFs off with VCTS and continue a TEMPO through 20Z for -TSRA. The bulk of the activity should start to sag southward through the afternoon and evening. VFR cigs will likely prevail overnight tonight with new thunderstorms developing across Central Texas on Saturday. At this time it appears that most of the convection on Saturday will be south of the major airports, but we`ll continue to monitor this potential. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 75 92 77 95 / 50 20 20 0 20 Waco 97 76 92 75 95 / 30 30 40 10 20 Paris 89 71 90 71 92 / 30 20 20 0 20 Denton 88 71 92 74 95 / 50 20 20 0 20 McKinney 88 72 91 74 94 / 50 20 20 5 20 Dallas 91 76 91 76 96 / 50 20 20 5 20 Terrell 92 73 90 73 93 / 50 20 30 5 20 Corsicana 95 76 92 76 95 / 40 20 40 5 20 Temple 97 75 93 74 96 / 20 20 50 10 20 Mineral Wells 89 71 91 72 95 / 60 30 20 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$