Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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297 FXUS64 KFWD 060002 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 702 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Sub-severe thunderstorms are ongoing in portions of Central Texas this evening near and just behind a consolidated southward-moving front/outflow boundary. This activity has been supported largely by diurnal instability and will continue to wane with loss of heating over the next couple of hours. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will be maintained in the forecast overnight in parts of Central and East Texas where warm advection in the vicinity of the 850-700mb frontal surface will exist. However, convective coverage should be very low or perhaps even nonexistent contingent on the degree of lift and available instability. No noteworthy adjustments were made to Saturday`s forecast from trends discussed below, and we`ll have to monitor surface boundary locations which will determine which areas of our CWA may be subject to redevelopment during the daytime. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of North Texas this afternoon as an outflow boundary pushes south of the I-20 corridor. This activity is expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon mainly along and just north of this boundary. Latest RAP objective analysis indicates moderate instability with MLCAPE >2000 J/kg throughout much of our Central TX counties which will support locally robust updrafts. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms could produce some gusty winds. Farther north, widespread rainfall continues across northwest Texas closer to the actual cold frontal boundary where weak synoptic ascent is also present thanks to a subtle mid level shortwave. For the remainder of the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will continue with the highest chances from the Metroplex south and west. PW values near 2 inches and generally weak wind fields suggest that locally heavy rainfall will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. Activity should start to diminish in coverage later this evening with loss of heating. We`ll maintain some low PoPs through the overnight hours given the proximity of the surface boundaries and generally moist airmass in place. On Saturday, the frontal boundary should sag southward into Central TX where a re-invigoration of convection should occur through the early afternoon as we heat up and destabilize. We`ll show increasing PoPs into the afternoon with coverage 40-50%. High temperatures should be held in check by continued cloud cover and rain chances with highs topping out in the lower 90s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ /Next Week/ Our cold front will retreat north as a warm front on Sunday as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest and a lee surface trough strengthens, with the boundary eventually stalling across Oklahoma. This will heat things up temporarily, with afternoon highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce max heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range. A few spots may exceed 105, particularly in the southeast where the influx of tropical moisture associated with Beryl could make conditions exceptionally humid. At this time, however, it looks like the localized nature and brief time-frame of these conditions will likely preclude the need for a Heat Advisory. For those who missed out on rainfall with the ongoing system, more opportunities will arrive next week as aforementioned shortwave emerges in the Plains, the front returns south as a cold front, and Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches from the south. Rain chances associated with the front will be mainly Sunday night through Monday, while those associated with the tropical system will be primarily Monday through Tuesday. This scenario is based on the latest operational model solutions (regarding the movement of Beryl), which match closely with the official NHC forecast. The severe weather threat appears low at this time, though there could be some strong winds late Sunday/early Monday as convection initiating along the front in Oklahoma approaches, particularly if upscale growth takes place and a cold pool develops. Heavy rain will become the main concern as Beryl begins to interact with the slow moving front in the Monday-Tuesday period. Eastern portions of Central Texas will be nearest the track of Beryl and will have the best potential of seeing heavy rain. Another thing to keep in mind will be the potential brief spin-up tornadoes, which could occur in rain bands where any surface instability is attained. Showers and storms will end from west to east late Tuesday-Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl get picked up by another shortwave trough and carried northeast into the Mississippi Valley. Weak troughing will linger overhead in the wake of the tropical system, bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures and low rain chances Wednesday through next weekend. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Showers and thunderstorms are exiting the TAF sites to the east, with only lingering light rain present as of 00z. A couple of in- cloud lightning flashes can`t be ruled out near the terminals for another hour or so this evening before all convective activity comes to an end after sunset. VFR skies and a north/northeast wind will prevail thereafter with multiple VFR cloud decks present overnight. Convective redevelopment is possible in parts of Central and East Texas tomorrow afternoon depending on the location of any surface boundaries during peak heating, but chances for convection at any of the TAF sites are too low to introduce into the forecast at this time. Winds should eventually return to ESE late tomorrow afternoon or evening. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 93 77 96 75 / 20 20 5 20 30 Waco 74 93 76 95 76 / 40 40 5 10 20 Paris 71 93 71 92 71 / 20 10 5 30 40 Denton 71 94 74 96 72 / 20 20 5 20 30 McKinney 72 93 74 95 72 / 20 20 5 20 30 Dallas 75 94 76 96 75 / 30 20 5 20 30 Terrell 73 93 74 94 73 / 40 20 5 20 20 Corsicana 75 93 76 95 76 / 50 40 5 20 20 Temple 74 93 74 96 76 / 20 40 10 10 10 Mineral Wells 70 93 72 96 72 / 20 20 5 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$