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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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711 FXUS63 KFSD 200336 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1036 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather through the rest of the weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms again Saturday. Some funnel development may be possible Saturday along with very locally heavy rainfall. - Many outdoor events this weekend will want to make sure to have an eye on the radar as activity will be rather variable in location and rapid to develop. - Cooler temperatures continue into next week, with near daily rain chances. Rain however won`t impact all locations, and will be very hit-or-miss. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Showers and thunderstorms organized quickly this morning and dropped south through the day. This has allowed a relatively stable air mass to settle in behind the showers and thunderstorms. What this should mean for the remainder of the afternoon and evening is nothing more than very isolated showers and thunderstorms with any locations that can reach the convective temperature. Instability and shear are minor so not expecting anything more than very localized heavy rain and lightning. Weak low to mid level warm advection continues across parts of northwest IA and northeast NE through the night which should allow for scattered activity, with a small uptick late tonight into Saturday morning when the wobbles a touch north and strengthens just a touch. Saturday will see the upper level low drift around in northwest IA before slowly moving south. This should keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area, but given the expected shear and instability severe weather looks very isolated. The threat should again be very localized heavy rainfall. With the upper level low nearby and low LFC`s a few funnel clouds cannot be ruled out. Sunday through Tuesday should see a diurnal cycle to shower and thunderstorm activity as the weakening upper level low pressure remains in the area. Model soundings indicate weak instability each afternoon with weak shear so isolated to scattered activity will be possible but severe weather is not expected. Temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal, but warm into the lower 80s by Tuesday. Wednesday into Friday should see upper level ridging build back into the area with drier conditions and temperatures climbing back to around or a touch above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Fog and stratus are expected to develop tonight as winds continue to become light. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with this development. Less certainty near KSUX into northwestern IA where showers may redevelop overnight into early Saturday, so went with rain over fog in prevailing. Stratus continues into Saturday evening especially along/east of I-29 with low pressure pivots off to the east. Uncertainty continues through the TAF period with isolated to scattered convection into Saturday night. 20.00z models are becoming a bit more isolated with coverage for areas north and west of KFSD, so narrowed and delayed PROB30 group for KHON. Showers and storms could produce locally heavy rain, reducing visibility to MVFR or IFR conditions. Above the stratus, thicker wildfire smoke is expected over the area through the period. This should remain aloft, around 20kft or higher. Winds shift to easterly toward Saturday afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...SG