800
FNUS75 KFGZ 160105
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Ponderosa Piles RX...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
605 PM MST Thu Aug 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ.

.DISCUSSION...

*A dry period continues on Friday with warm temperatures and
low humidity in the afternoon. Breezy south to southwest winds
persist by the early afternoon.

*Moisture begins to increase Friday night into Saturday with a
return of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon and
evening. Southerly winds will remain breezy with warm temperatures.

*Long Range Outlook: Chances for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue each day through the weekend and into next
week. Temperatures remain warm with no significant winds, outside
of gusty and erratic outflows from any storms.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......5 percent.
Max temperature.....87-90.
Min humidity........27-31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8-12 mph with gusts of
20 mph after 1100 MST.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1424.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....60-64.
Max humidity........68-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 2-5 mph after 2000 MST.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......4.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing by 1200 MST.
Chance of pcpn......55 percent in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....85-89.
Min humidity........33-37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 2-5 mph in the morning, becoming
southwest 8-12 mph with gusts of 20 mph by 1100 MST.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1282.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL in the morning, increasing to 10700 ft AGL
in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...LAGUARDIA
Requested by...Morgan Mabery
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2420366.0/FGZ
.DELDT 08/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL morgan.mabery@usda.gov