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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
752 FNUS75 KFGZ 170053 FWSFGZ Spot Forecast for Ponderosa Piles RX...USFS National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 553 PM MST Fri Aug 16 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on August 17. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ .DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will arrive on Saturday with a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the weekend. Note, you could see a few light showers as early as Saturday morning. Other than the usual thunderstorm threats of heavy rain, lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph, look for generally light winds. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. Max temperature.....Around 86. Min humidity........35 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. LAL.................3. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Max Vent Rate.......Excellent. Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 15 knots. .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. Min temperature.....Around 60. Max humidity........75 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph until 11:00 PM then shifting to the east. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. LAL.................2. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Min Vent Rate.......Poor. Mixing height.......100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots shifting to the east overnight. .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. Max temperature.....Around 87. Min humidity........37 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph until 10:00 AM then shifting to the southwest. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. LAL.................3. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Max Vent Rate.......Very good. Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL in the morning and early afternoon increasing to 11700 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....South around 5 knots shifting to the southwest late in the afternoon. $$ Forecaster...MCCOLLUM Requested by...Morgan Mabery Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2420411.0/FGZ .DELDT 08/16/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL morgan.mabery@usda.gov