752
FNUS75 KFGZ 170053
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Ponderosa Piles RX...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
553 PM MST Fri Aug 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MST on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will arrive on Saturday with a chance
of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the weekend.
Note, you could see a few light showers as early as Saturday morning. Other
than the usual thunderstorm threats of heavy rain, lightning and wind
gusts to 40 mph, look for generally light winds.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 15 knots.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph until 11:00 PM then
                    shifting to the east. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots shifting to the east
                    overnight.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph until 10:00 AM then
                    shifting to the southwest. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL in the morning and early afternoon
                    increasing to 11700 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 5 knots shifting to the southwest
                    late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...MCCOLLUM
Requested by...Morgan Mabery
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2420411.0/FGZ
.DELDT 08/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL morgan.mabery@usda.gov