319
FNUS75 KFGZ 110405
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Fish Lake...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
905 PM MST Wed Jul 10 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MST on July 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

repost by vjm for web update

.DISCUSSION...

*The warm and mainly dry conditions persist for today with breezy
north winds expected in the afternoon. A high-based shower or
thunderstorm could develop this afternoon generating gusty outflow
winds and lightning.

*Conditions clear overnight with moderate to good humidity recovery
expected. Moisture increases on Thursday with isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms forecast by the afternoon.

*Long Range Outlook: Monsoonal moisture continues to increase for
Friday and through the weekend with greater chances for showers and
thunderstorms at the fire site. Though gusty outflow winds are expected
from storms, wetting rains (>0.10") are likely as well.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny, becoming cloudy by early afternoon. Chance
of a high-based shower or thunderstorm by 1200 MST.
Chance of pcpn......25-30 percent after 1200 MST.
Max temperature.....79-82.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8-12 mph with gusts of 18 mph. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1975.
Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL in the morning increasing to
                    15600 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 20 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy, becoming mostly clear overnight. Slight
chance of a high-based shower or thunderstorm before
2000 MST.
Chance of pcpn......15-20 percent in the early evening.
Min temperature.....51-54.
Max humidity........59-63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 4-8 mph in the evening, becoming
southwest 3-6 mph by 2300 MST. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......50 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest overnight.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny, becoming cloudy by 1100 MST. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1100 MST.
Chance of pcpn......50-60 percent by 1200 MST.
Max temperature.....76-80.
Min humidity........17-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 4-8 mph in the early morning, shifting to
the east-northeast after 1000 MST. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1116.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL in the morning increasing to
                    16200 ft AGL by the early afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 10 mph, shifting to the northeast
                    in the afternoon.


$$
Forecaster...LAGUARDIA
Requested by...Tom Lopez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417645.10/FGZ
.DELDT 07/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.lopez@usda.gov