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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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539 FXUS65 KFGZ 081743 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1043 AM MST Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through mid-week, with chances for showers/thunderstorms gradually increasing each day starting on Tuesday. && .UPDATE...Smoke from wildfires in southern Utah have made for a hazy start to the morning, however conditions should begin to improve (at least at the surface) as winds increase through the day. Dry, and slightly cooler (but still hot) temperatures are otherwise expected today. A few fair weather cumulus look to bubble up over the Mogollon Rim but that`s about it for today. No major changes needed this morning, with only minor updates to add the latest HRRR smoke guidance in the short term. && .PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...An area of high pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures (averaging 5-15 degrees above normal) for the next few days. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon and Marble/Glen Canyons. This product has been extended through Wednesday evening for the Grand Canyon and Marble/Glen Canyons zones, but is still forecast to expire Tuesday evening for the lower elevations of Yavapai County due to increased precipitation chances. Dangerously hot temperatures will likely persist through the end of the week for the previously mentioned canyon zones, but further extensions of this product will be decided as we progress through the week. The high pressure system will slowly wobble eastward through the week keeping mostly dry air in place today and tomorrow, but enough moisture could funnel up from the southeast to stir up isolated showers/thunderstorms near the White Mountains/Mogollon Rim Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, PWAT values look to increase for many places south of I-40 as this ridge continues eastward. Over the weekend/early next week...The center of the high pressure system is forecast to settle over the Four Corner by Saturday, becoming a more favorable monsoon pattern for Arizona. As a result, precipitation chances become widespread over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This active pattern could hold until the middle of next week, but there is still uncertainty on how long this pattern will stick around. Either way, look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms for most of northern Arizona by Saturday. && .AVIATION...Monday 08/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions through the TAF period, with generally light northerly winds. Haze and smoke may reduce visibilities, especially near KPGA and KGCN. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/18Z through Thursday 11/18Z...Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, winds light and variable at 5-10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Hot and dry conditions are expected, outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms near the White Mountains on Tuesday. Northerly winds 10-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries to 15-25% over northwest Arizona, 35-45% over central and eastern Arizona. Wednesday through Friday...Hot but with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Daytime winds light and variable at 5 to 10 mph. Afternoon RH gradually rising each day from 8-16% on Wednesday to 10-25% on Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for AZZ005-006. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ037. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys/Konieczny AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff