101
FXUS65 KFGZ 091634
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 AM MST Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through much of the
week, but starting today, precipitation chances will gradually
increase through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Latest hi-res CAM and U of A WRF guidance indicates the
potential for a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and
south of the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Much of the
activity will be high-based, with gusty winds being the primary
threat from any stronger storm. A couple isolated storms will also
be possible across the Black Hills and Bradshaw Mountains in
Yavapai County. Hot and dry conditions are otherwise expected
across northern Arizona.


Minor updates this morning to bring PoPs a touch further west
across Gila county and add latest HRRR smoke guidance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /337 AM MST/...High pressure continues to be
centered over southern Nevada and northeastern Arizona, allowing
temperatures to stay hot across the state. Afternoon highs will
stay 5-15 degrees above average for the next few days, so there is
a good chance we will see more record breaking temperatures
before the end of the week.

The dominating ridge will gradually push eastward throughout the
week, landing in a more favorable monsoon pattern by the weekend.
As a result, moisture will slowly increase across northern Arizona
starting today and become more widespread by Saturday. For today,
the majority of precipitation/thunderstorms will be focused near
the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim. On the flip side,
the latest U of A WRF run and the SPC HREF shows potential for a
few isolated thunderstorms across Yavapai County this afternoon.
Due to limited moisture and a large anticipated inversion layer,
storms that do form today will likely be on the dry side. The
potential for convective activity will spread westward each
afternoon, but greatest chances will remain focused over the
higher terrain.

Despite PWAT values increasing through the week and hi-res
guidance indicating the return of the monsoon, high pressure will
still be sitting over much of the state. As a result, hot
temperatures will stick around through much of the period. The
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for Yavapai County below
4000 feet through Thursday evening and for Marble/Glen Canyons
below 4000 feet through Friday evening. Keep in mind depending on
when/where showers/storms begin to form, afternoon highs may stay
a little cooler than forecast, but even so, it will be hot.

Lastly, overnight and early morning smoke/haze will continue to be
noted across varies portions of our CWA due to a couple of
wildfires in Utah and a few here in Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 09/12Z through Wednesday 10/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a
KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of
SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for variable surface winds at 5-15 kts
gusting 20 kts between 18Z-03Z, turning light and variable during
the overnight hours. Haze and smoke may reduce visibilities,
especially near KPGA and KGCN.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/12Z through Friday 12/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions outside of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA along and
south of a KFLG-KSJN line. Storms mainly isolated toward KFLG/KPRC
with scattered coverage south of KSOW/KSJN. Gusty and erratic
winds in the vicinity of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, variable winds at
5-15 kts. Haze and smoke may continue to be an issue near KPGA
and KGCN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Continued very hot and mainly
dry. Chances for mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms start
today near the White Mountains, pushing further west on Wednesday.
Wetting rains are not likely in this time frame. Winds generally
light and variable, 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Hot with gradually increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Winds light and variable at 5 to 10
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff