874
FXUS65 KFGZ 092125
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
225 PM MST Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through much of the
week, but starting today, precipitation chances will gradually
increase through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure centered over the Mojave
Desert continues to gradually shift eastward across Arizona and
Utah. While the high will continue to advected warm, dry air into
northern Arizona, moisture does begin to creep into areas just
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Areas from Payson and
eastward have already seen dewpoints rise into the upper 40s F and
lower 50s F. This moisture should allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon, however the
strength of the high will limit the overall coverage of the
activity.

The greatest coverage of storms looks to mainly be along and south
of the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. A couple isolated
storms will also be possible across the Black Hills and Bradshaw
Mountains in Yavapai County. Much of the activity will be high-
based, with gusty winds being the primary threat from any stronger
storm.

Elsewhere, mainly hot and dry conditions will continue with some
fair weather cumulus over the higher terrain. Can`t necessarily rule
out some virga across some of the higher terrain with any more
vigorous cumulus development, but any appreciable rainfall is
unlikely.

Wednesday and Thursday...As the high continues to meander it`s way
eastward, chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly
increases through the middle of the week. The greatest chances will
continue along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains each afternoon,
as the high to the north will act to suppress any activity that tries
to develop elsewhere. Activity should continue to be high-based with
wetting rains unlikely.

High temperatures will continue to be above normal across much of
northern Arizona. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning will continue
across much of the lower elevations.

Friday through Monday...The aforementioned ridge of high pressure
finally begins to move into a more favorable position over the Four
Corners by the weekend. Moisture advection looks to increases across
northern Arizona, with PWATs nearing an inch by Saturday. Thus,
chances for wetting rains look to become more likely, along with the
potential for flash flooding.

With the increasing moisture and resulting cloud cover, temperatures
look to decreases across the region. Afternoon high temperatures by
the weekend look to be within a few degrees of normal for this time
of year. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations of the
Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon/Lake Powell will continue through
Friday as moisture is not expected to reach that far north yet.
.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 09/18Z through Wednesday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISOLD afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line.
Winds generally light and variable, 5-15kts. Smoke from area
wildfires may reduce VIS, especially at night.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/18Z through Friday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT afternoon SHRA/TSRA mainly along and south of the
Mogollon Rim/White Mtns. Winds generally light and variable, from 5-
15kts. Smoke from area wildfires may reduce VIS, especially at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Continued very hot and
mainly dry. Chances for mainly high-based showers and thunderstorms
roughly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Winds generally light and variable, 5 to 15 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Turning a bit cooler as the Monsoon returns
during this period. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms becoming
more likely each day, with coverage pushing north and west. Winds
light and variable, 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff