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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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291 FXUS65 KFGZ 101042 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 342 AM MST Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the week, with a slight cooling trend returning over the weekend. Chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the forecast period, becoming more widespread in coverage by Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...The area of high pressure over much of the West Coast is still centered around the AZ/NV border, but looks to wobble eastward towards the Four Corners over the next few days. Although the current synoptic set-up is not our typical monsoon pattern, there is still enough moisture available to funnel up from the southeast. The limited moisture and large-scale pattern will keep activity primarily south of the I-40, similar to what was seen across the area yesterday (Tuesday). The SPC HREF Most Unstable CAPE also indicates the more likely locations for convective activity to be across Yavapai County and northern Gila County, which aligns nicely with the recent U of A WRF model run. As we move towards the weekend, the previously mentioned high will center over the Four Corners. This set-up is a more favorable monsoon pattern, so anticipate a fairly active weekend/beginning of next week for much of the state. It`s still a little far out to nail down all the details for the weekend, but the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) does have all of northern Arizona in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday, and model guidance is suggesting PWAT values surpassing an inch for many locations by Saturday. This essentially indicates storms this weekend to have the potential to bring heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Even with the increase in moisture and storm potential, temperatures are forecast to remain hot through the week. Afternoon highs should cool slightly by Saturday, but still look for 80-90 degree temperatures across the High Country and triple digits for lower elevations. With that being said, there is an Excessive Heat Warning out for Yavapai County below 4000` through Thursday evening and also one out for areas below 4000` near Glen/Marble Canyons through Friday evening. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 10/12Z through Thursday 11/12Z...VFR conditions continue with scattered to broken cloud cover after 18Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast (15-25%) along and south of a KCMR-KFLG-KSOW line from 20Z-01Z with the greatest chances for KPRC. Outside of any gusty, erratic outflow winds from storms, expect north winds 10-15 kts through 02Z, becoming light and variable thereafter. OUTLOOK...Thursday 11/12Z through Saturday 13/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions persist through the period. Chances and coverage for showers and thunderstorms increases each afternoon, becoming widespread by Saturday. Expect west to north winds on Thursday, transitioning to southwest, 10-15 kts, for Friday and Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...The hot temperatures persist each day with a gradual increase in monsoonal moisture. Afternoon humidity will remain below 15% for today and Thursday. There is a 15 to 25% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop along and south of the Mogollon Rim for this afternoon, followed by increasing chances along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains on Thursday. Outside of any gusty, erratic outflow winds from storms, expect northerly winds, 15 to 20 mph, each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...The above average temperatures begin a cooling trend as monsoonal moisture returns to the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Friday, becoming widespread for Saturday and Sunday across much of northern Arizona. Wetting rains (>0.10") are expected with any storms along with gusty and erratic outflow winds, up to 40 mph. Outside of any outflow winds, anticipate west-southwest winds, 15 to 20 mph, each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005-006. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff