281
FXUS65 KFGZ 110407
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
907 PM MST Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the week, with
a slight cooling trend for the weekend. Moisture will slowly return
to the region, with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
increasing each day, but especially by the weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Strong storms moved through the Prescott area this
afternoon dropping hail up to one inch and delivering some gusty
winds. Outflow winds were very proficient this afternoon and were
able to move through quite a few areas along the I-17 corridor and
areas to the east. Radar is much quieter this evening with only
some isolated showers around but most areas are dry and will
remain so through the rest of the night. Expect a similar day
tomorrow with most of the activity focused south of I-40 and along
the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains. Another hot day
with scattered storms is expected so be prepared if out and about
during the afternoon and evening hours.

Updated the PoPs for tomorrow afternoon but other than that
eveything looks to be on track with the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /456 PM MST/...A relatively strong mid-level high pressure cell
remains centered over NW Arizona today. This position should be
maintained for another day or two, before very slowly moving into
western Colorado by the weekend. This will start to open the door
for the return of Monsoonal moisture, higher dew points are already
pooling in SW Arizona, fueled by our endless thermal low.

Initially, northerly steering flow and warm temperatures aloft will
limit some convection, especially north of I-40. Some higher CAPE
values and moisture pooled in Yavapai County this afternoon may lead
to a few, stronger storms before sunset, but even these will have
fairly high bases and low PW.

By Thursday, the profiles do not change much, but as the moisture
seep comes a bit farther north each night, convective initiation
will also creep northward. Still, on Thursday and even for Friday,
storms will be relatively high-based. The story will remain to be
heat, with a smattering of storms.

By the weekend, things should really open up, even more so by early
next week. This will be due to a multitude of reasons, but basically
improved steering low, cooler mid-level temperatures and southerly
flow. This will bring us back into at least medium-grade Monsoon
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 11/00Z through Friday 12/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO-SCT SHRA/-TSRA through 02Z, mainly south of a
KCMR-KFLG-KSOW line. Sfc winds less than 15kts outside of storms.

OUTLOOK...Friday 12/00Z through Sunday 14/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA each afternoon mainly
between 20Z-02Z, with best activity along and south of a KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW line. Sfc winds less than 15kts outside of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot temperatures persist on
Thursday, slight cooling expected Friday. Slowly increasing chances
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and south of
the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Outside of storms, variable
winds around 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday through Monday...A modest cooling trend, as monsoonal
moisture returns with the more widespread afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage increases to affect much of the district.
Wetting rains are expected with any storms. Outside of storms,
west through southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff