938
FXUS65 KFGZ 112044
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
144 PM MST Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through Friday, with a
slight cooling trend for the weekend. Moisture will slowly return
to the region, with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
increasing each day, becoming widespread by the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Anomalously strong high pressure remains positioned
over southern NV/UT and northwestern AZ today. This continues to
drive our hot summer weather pattern, while keeping monsoon
activity limited to the Mogollon Rim and southward so far.
Steering flow today is again from the north which will keep the
focus of afternoon/evening thunderstorms south of the Rim in
Yavapai/Gila counties, where the best moisture and instability
reside (on the order of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE). Some vertical
wind shear (20-30 kts) is present across central AZ today and will
help lead to a few severe and/or prolonged storms capable of
hail, damaging wind and brief heavy rain. Storms will dissipate
later this evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

The high pressure center begins to slowly drift eastward tonight
and Friday, centering closer to the four corners for the upcoming
weekend. This will open the door to increasing moisture and
thunderstorm chances during this period. The moisture still looks
relatively high-based on Friday with the low levels beginning to
moisten up and more widespread activity expected for Saturday
through Monday. Strong wind gusts will remain a high concern
through Friday, transitioning to more of a heavy rain threat over
the weekend.

In terms of heat, the Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect
for the lower valleys of Yavapai county through tonight and
Grand/Glen Canyons through Friday. The additional storm coverage
and cloud cover on Friday is expected to limit the heat threat in
Yavapai county Friday, but less cloud cover and closer proximity
to the high pressure center will keep the heat warnings going for
Grand Canyon. There is potential for the Grand Canyon heat
warnings to be extended, but confidence is not high enough with
the increasing moisture to extend just yet.

The moderate monsoon pattern will continue through early next week
as the high pressure center makes little movement. However,
confidence in the moisture sticking around begins to decrease late
next week. Models are suggesting another amplification of the
western U.S. ridge parking itself over Nevada, which is a nearly
identical pattern to what we`re seeing right now. Under this
pattern, it`s likely far northern AZ will see drying with areas
south of the Rim continuing to see thunderstorm chances. Hot
temperatures are likely to develop again, and we`ll have to watch
for additional heat impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 11/18Z through Friday 12/18Z...Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today southwest of a KFLG -
KRQE line. Best chances will favor KPRC/KSEZ terminals later this
afternoon. Strong wind gusts 40-50 kts, hail, and brief heavy
rain possible with stronger storms. Outside of storms, look for
winds 5-15 kts varying in direction.

OUTLOOK...Friday 12/18Z through Sunday 14/18Z...Scattered
showers/storms from KGCN - KRQE southward on Fri, increasing in
coverage and spreading across all of northern AZ on Sat. Brief
MVFR possible in stronger storms with otherwise VFR conditions.
Outside of thunderstorms, expect prevailing winds generally 10 kts
or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Hot temperatures
continue through Friday with scattered thunderstorms focused along
and south of the Mogollon Rim. Strong outflow winds, hail and
brief heavy rain possible in the strong storms. Expect increasing
moisture, lower temperatures, and more widespread thunderstorm
activity beginning Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Seasonable temperatures return along
with scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. A mixture of
wetting rains, hail, and gusty winds are possible. Outside of
storm driven winds, expect generally west through southwest winds
5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff