617
FXUS65 KFGZ 141838
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1138 AM MST Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day through next week as we enter into an active monsoon
pattern. Temperatures will remain near average during this time
with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...The current forecast package is in good shape. The
morning sounding at Flagstaff indicated a bit more low level
moisture and instability. In addition, model soundings further
south are indicating a similar trend with increased moisture and
instability. As a result, expecting more widespread activity from
the Mogollon Rim southward than observed on Saturday. A few pulse
severe thunderstorms will be possible over Yavapai County with a
mixed layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Elsewhere, isolated activity.
We did lower the chances for precipitation for late this evening
and after midnight to a generic 10-20% since there is very low
confidence in any area in particular receiving showers overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /439 AM MST/...Today...High pressure over the
Four Corners will drive monsoonal moisture into Arizona. A
decaying complex of thunderstorms over northern Mexico should also
help to increase moisture across central Arizona today. As a
result, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected. 00 UTC HREF guidance shows the greatest instability
(around 1000-2000 J/Kg) in areas south and west of the Mogollon
Rim, with lesser CAPE values (200-700 J/Kg) to the north. PWATs
also look to be maximized over these areas, with around 1.00- 1.20
inches.

The greatest coverage and intensity of storms looks to mainly be
near and south of the Mogollon Rim into Yavapai County, the greatest
coverage is expected over these areas. Elsewhere, more isolated
coverage is expected. Storms should initially fire over the higher
terrain, but as outflows develop, storms should move southwestward
off the terrain into the lower elevations. The main threats with
storms today will be flash flooding and strong, gusty outflow
winds.

Monday...High pressure begins to shift further eastward slightly,
allowing for more moisture to be advected northward. Greater
coverage across northern Arizona looks to ensue as a result.
However, any remnant debris clouds in the morning from earlier
convection could limit/delay convective initiation.

Latest hi-res guidance has the greatest chances for storms on Monday
mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim, before transitioning
southward into the lower deserts.

Tuesday through Saturday...High pressure continues to wobble in
place through the week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
will remain as a result, with daily coverage largely dependent upon
the exact position of the high and any influences from remnant
convection.

Temperatures look to remain near to slightly above normal through
the period. Each days afternoon high temperatures look to vary from
day to day as the high shifts, but showers and storms (and their
resulting cloud cover) could easily result in cooler temperatures on
some days.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/18Z through Monday 15/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT-WDSPRD TSRA/SHRA 19Z-02Z and then ISOLD with MVFR
conditions in stronger storms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds
30-40 kts, otherwise W-SW winds 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/18Z through Wednesday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. SCT- WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower possible,
mainly between 19Z-03Z each day. Gusty and erratic outflow winds
in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, west winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern
Arizona again today and Monday. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow
winds at 35-45 mph, expect southerly winds around 5-15 mph each
afternoon. Slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

Tuesday through Thursday...Monsoonal moisture will remain across the
region with scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
each day. West to northwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon
with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Humphreys
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff