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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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870 FXUS65 KFGZ 192331 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 430 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend with typical afternoon winds. && .DISCUSSION...A moderate monsoonal pattern will continue under the influence of high pressure aloft over the region through the next several days. The upper level high pressure circulation is centered over central Arizona today and gradually nudging westward. Convective initiation has begun with isolated to scattered coverage over the higher terrain areas. Storm strength is somewhat lacking so far, likely due to less available instability today with the high parked overhead. As has been the pattern the last several days, expect scattered storms to continue through this evening while gradually drifting into the lower elevations. Brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds are the main concerns today. Very marginal instability should limit the threat of larger hail. We expect a continuation of this general pattern through the upcoming week. The high pressure circulation will shift west of Arizona while strengthening over the Great Basin. This will keep us in a northerly steering flow. Expect daily chances for thunderstorms, with a focus for late afternoon/evening storms south of the Mogollon Rim. A slight uptick in moisture looks likely over the weekend, especially along and south of the rim which will lead to a slight increase in precipitation chances. This pattern typically results in some severe storms and heavy rainfall south of the rim, and Sunday/Monday look like the best days for this with more storm organization and longevity. Yavapai/Gila county will see storm chances continue well into the evening hours throughout this northerly flow regime. No notable changes in the pattern are expected until perhaps beyond day 7 when a flattening of the ridge could bring some drier air into the region, but confidence is low right now. The presence of the warm ridge and above average heights through most of the period will continue to bring warmer than average temperatures. The most susceptible areas are the lower Grand Canyon and valleys of Yavapai county, including Verde Valley, but these areas look to remain below any heat warning thresholds. Regardless, caution should be used in the lower elevations as temperatures continue to run well above normal for late July. && .AVIATION...Saturday 20/00Z through Sunday 21/00Z...Outside of convective activity, expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. Through 03Z Saturday and again AFT 18Z-19Z Saturday, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds. OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/00Z through Tuesday 23/00Z...Outside of convective activity, expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. From 18Z-03Z each day, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...A warm, monsoonal pattern will continue with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. The threat for heavy rain increases Sunday south of the Mogollon Rim. Outside of storm activity, expect west to north winds 5 to 15 mph. Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. An increased threat for heavy rainfall continues Monday south of the Mogollon Rim. Winds outside of storms mainly less than 15 mph and variable in direction. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff