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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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990 FXUS65 KFGZ 150926 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 226 AM MST Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with typical afternoon winds. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered across the Four Corners region early this morning but will start to shift slightly to the west over the next several days. For today...With the high across the Four Corners we should continue to see moisture increasing across the region. Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the best activity along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Isolated showers will remain possible across northern areas through this evening. CAPE values remain higher south of the Rim (>1000 J/kg) with lower values (500-1000 J/kg) elsewhere. Would not be surprised to see a few strong to severe storms develop by this afternoon with strong outflow winds and even some hail. With plenty of moisture streaming into the region would expect some of the more robust storms will be able to drop some pretty heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain a concern through today, especially across Gila and Yavapai counties. As we head through the rest of the week, we see the high start to drift to the west, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through that time. We should be able to keep strong moisture advection across the state and continued daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The location of the high will be the main driver for just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day. The pattern changes very little giving more confidence in the monsoon hanging around through next weekend. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the week with the afternoon high temps varying from day to day. Cloud cover and convection will play a role here as well and will likely limit just how hot it gets each day. && .AVIATION...Monday 15/06Z through Tuesday 16/06Z...VFR conditions outside of storm activity. Scattered SHRA/TSRA ending by 08Z south of I-40 and west of I-17. MVFR conditions, hail, and gusty/erratic winds to 30- 40 kts in the stronger storms in southwest Yavapai County. Another round of scattered storms developing after 19Z and decreasing after 03Z, most numerous along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/06Z through Thursday 18/06Z...VFR conditions outside of storm activity. Scattered SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower possible, mainly between 19Z-03Z each day. Gusty and erratic outflow winds in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, west winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. West/northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal temperatures. Wednesday through Friday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Mainly light winds outside of thunderstorms, along with near-normal temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff