Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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015 FXUS65 KFGZ 170534 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1035 PM MST Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues. Temperatures will remain above average, with generally light afternoon winds, away from storm activity. && .DISCUSSION...A few remaining outflows out there tonight, some of them potent enough to kick off new showers/thunderstorms. Vertical development is quite limited now that the sun is down, most activity has become isolated and even the newer activity this evening will be short-lived. We expect quiet conditions the remainder of the night with another similar day tomorrow. Evening PoPs look pretty good, no updates are needed. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 17/06Z through Thursday 18/06Z...ISOLD -SHRA ending by 08Z, then clearing. AFT 19Z Wednesday, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA that may produce brief MVFR. VFR outside of convective activity. Expect light winds away from convective activity and outflows. OUTLOOK...Thursday 17/06Z through Saturday 20/06Z...Each day from about 19Z-03Z, expect SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA that may produce brief MVFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail, clearing conditions each night. Sfc winds W-SW5-15kts in the daytime. Winds may be gusty and erratic when associated with convective activity and/or outflows. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Temperatures will remain above normal. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable 5 to 15 mph outside of storm/outflow activity. Friday through Sunday...Temperatures will remain above normal. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds generally variable 5 to 15 mph outside of storm/outflow activity. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...RKR/Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff